# MLB Dinger Picks Today (May 2, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets > Dinger of the Day for May 2, 2026: 15-game slate scored across 12 Statcast and matchup factors. Yordan Alvarez leads tonight's HR picks. Updated daily. **Date:** 2026-05-02 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-2-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Saturday, May 2, 2026** are Yordan Alvarez (Score: 62 — Yordan Alvarez rates a 62.0 dinger composite score against Connelly Early today), Aaron Judge (Score: 60 — Aaron Judge rates a 60.1 dinger composite score against Kyle Bradish today), Hunter Goodman (Score: 60 — Hunter Goodman rates a 59.6 dinger composite score against Chris Sale today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 12-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today - May 2, 2026 15-game slate, 255 eligible bats. These Statcast profiles and matchups stand out. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - live Per-pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - May 1](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-1-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - BAL @ NYY (Kyle Bradish vs Ryan Weathers) - 1:35 PM ET - TOR @ MIN (Dylan Cease vs Connor Prielipp) - 2:10 PM ET - AZ @ CHC (Ryne Nelson vs Shota Imanaga) - 2:20 PM ET - CLE @ ATH (Slade Cecconi vs Jacob Lopez) - 4:05 PM ET - CIN @ PIT (Rhett Lowder vs Carmen Mlodzinski) - 4:05 PM ET - MIL @ WSH (Kyle Harrison vs Foster Griffin) - 4:05 PM ET - HOU @ BOS (Spencer Arrighetti vs Connelly Early) - 4:10 PM ET - PHI @ MIA (Andrew Painter vs Max Meyer) - 4:10 PM ET - SF @ TB (Landen Roupp vs Griffin Jax) - 6:10 PM ET - LAD @ STL (Roki Sasaki vs Michael McGreevy) - 7:15 PM ET - TEX @ DET (Kumar Rocker vs Keider Montero) - 7:15 PM ET - ATL @ COL (Chris Sale vs TBD) - 8:10 PM ET - CWS @ SD (Sean Burke vs Michael King) - 8:40 PM ET - NYM @ LAA (Nolan McLean vs Reid Detmers) - 9:38 PM ET - KC @ SEA (Seth Lugo vs Emerson Hancock) - 9:40 PM ET ## Pick 1: Yordan Alvarez — HOU vs Connelly Early (LHP) *Fenway Park · 12 HR · 18.1% barrel · 104.7 mph EV · 0.812 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.15* **Top play tonight.** Connelly Early throws his slider 10% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.800 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Yordan Alvarez should be sitting on. His 18.1% barrel rate (elite, top-of-league) backs the take. One small concern: 46°F at first pitch will eat a few feet off any deep drive. ## Pick 2: Aaron Judge — NYY vs Kyle Bradish (RHP) *Yankee Stadium · 12 HR · 27.0% barrel · 105.4 mph EV · 0.685 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.90* Kyle Bradish throws his 4-seam fastball 15% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.789 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Aaron Judge should be sitting on. Judge's 27.0% barrel rate is barrel rate that screams "elite contact quality" — top decile across MLB. Judge has been swinging at peak — 3 long balls in his last 7 games. Weather flag — 50°F is cold enough to suppress the long ball. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Pick 3: Hunter Goodman — COL vs Chris Sale (LHP) *Coors Field · 9 HR · 15.9% barrel · 104.0 mph EV · 0.468 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.29* The clearest tell on tonight's HR board: Hunter Goodman, 4 home runs in his last 7 contests while hitting .300. The barrel is alive, and the matchup says he keeps rolling. Goodman squares the ball up at 15.9% — elite, top-of-league contact quality on the year. Park factor is the kicker: 5,200 ft means warning-track flies become souvenirs. ## Honorable Mentions - **Mike Trout** (LAA) vs Nolan McLean — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Dalton Rushing** (LAD) vs Michael McGreevy — 15.2% barrel rate. - **Kyle Schwarber** (PHI) vs Max Meyer — 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Jordan Walker** (STL) vs Roki Sasaki — 21.1% barrel rate. - **Ben Rice** (NYY) vs Kyle Bradish — 3 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 12 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-may-2-2026) - no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*