# MLB Dinger Picks Today (May 19, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets > MLB HR picks for May 19, 2026 - Kyle Schwarber leads the board across 15 games. Statcast power metrics, matchup context, and hot streaks scored. **Date:** 2026-05-19 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-19-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Tuesday, May 19, 2026** are Kyle Schwarber (Score: 67 — Kyle Schwarber rates a 66.5 dinger composite score against Chase Burns today), Byron Buxton (Score: 66 — Byron Buxton rates a 66.4 dinger composite score against Lance McCullers Jr. today), Jordan Walker (Score: 63 — Jordan Walker rates a 63.4 dinger composite score against Mitch Keller today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 12-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today - May 19, 2026 268 batters, 15 games. Here's where the power and matchup line up for dingers tonight. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - live Per-pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - May 18](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-18-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - ATL @ MIA (Martín Pérez vs Braxton Garrett) - 4:10 PM ET - CLE @ DET (Parker Messick vs Keider Montero) - 6:40 PM ET - BAL @ TB (Kyle Bradish vs Griffin Jax) - 6:40 PM ET - CIN @ PHI (Chase Burns vs Jesús Luzardo) - 6:40 PM ET - NYM @ WSH (Nolan McLean vs Foster Griffin) - 6:45 PM ET - TOR @ NYY (Dylan Cease vs Will Warren) - 7:05 PM ET - BOS @ KC (Ranger Suarez vs Kris Bubic) - 7:40 PM ET - HOU @ MIN (Lance McCullers Jr. vs Zebby Matthews) - 7:40 PM ET - MIL @ CHC (Jacob Misiorowski vs Ben Brown) - 7:40 PM ET - PIT @ STL (Mitch Keller vs Matthew Liberatore) - 7:45 PM ET - TEX @ COL (Kumar Rocker vs TBD) - 8:40 PM ET - ATH @ LAA (Jacob Lopez vs Reid Detmers) - 9:38 PM ET - LAD @ SD (Emmet Sheehan vs Griffin Canning) - 9:40 PM ET - SF @ AZ (Landen Roupp vs Ryne Nelson) - 9:40 PM ET - CWS @ SEA (Anthony Kay vs TBD) - 9:40 PM ET ## Pick 1: Kyle Schwarber — PHI vs Chase Burns (RHP) *Citizens Bank Park · 20 HR · 26.2% barrel · 104.3 mph EV · 0.592 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.90* **Top play tonight.** The clearest tell on tonight's HR board: Kyle Schwarber, 6 home runs in his last 7 contests while hitting .321. The barrel is alive, and the matchup says he keeps rolling. Underneath the matchup is a 26.2% barrel rate, which is elite, top-of-league territory. ## Pick 2: Byron Buxton — MIN vs Lance McCullers Jr. (RHP) *Target Field · 15 HR · 21.1% barrel · 101.4 mph EV · 0.503 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.78* Byron Buxton's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Lance McCullers Jr. leans on a sinker 24% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .500 against it. Underneath the matchup is a 21.1% barrel rate, which is elite, top-of-league territory. Recent form lines up: 4 bombs in his last 7 contests. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Pick 3: Jordan Walker — STL vs Mitch Keller (RHP) *Busch Stadium · 13 HR · 17.8% barrel · 106.0 mph EV · 0.550 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.71* Barrel rate is the cleanest single predictor of home runs, and Jordan Walker's elite 17.8% barrel rate (90th+ percentile) sits in territory only a handful of bats reach. Pair that with 106.0 mph average exit velocity and the ceiling is obvious. Walker has been swinging at peak — 3 long balls in his last 7 games. One reason to size down: Mitch Keller has been stingy with the long ball this year (0.71 HR/9), so the matchup is tougher than the bat profile alone reads. ## Honorable Mentions - **Mickey Moniak** (COL) vs Kumar Rocker — 15.0% barrel rate. - **Yordan Alvarez** (HOU) vs Zebby Matthews — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **James Wood** (WSH) vs Nolan McLean — 27.1% barrel rate. - **Mike Trout** (LAA) vs Jacob Lopez — 22.6% barrel rate. - **Luke Raley** (SEA) vs Anthony Kay — 2 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 12 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-may-19-2026) - no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*