# MLB Dinger Picks Today (May 16, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets > Who hits a home run tonight? 15 games analyzed through barrel rate, xSLG, platoon splits, and pitcher HR/9 - Kyle Schwarber tops the dinger board. **Date:** 2026-05-16 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-16-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Saturday, May 16, 2026** are Kyle Schwarber (Score: 75 — Kyle Schwarber rates a 75.2 dinger composite score against Bubba Chandler today), Luke Raley (Score: 69 — Luke Raley rates a 69.3 dinger composite score against Walker Buehler today), Yordan Alvarez (Score: 68 — Yordan Alvarez rates a 68.2 dinger composite score against Jacob deGrom today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 12-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today - May 16, 2026 15 games on the board. These bats have the Statcast profiles and matchups to go deep. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - live Per-pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - May 15](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-15-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - TOR @ DET (Mason Fluharty vs Casey Mize) - 1:10 PM ET - KC @ STL (Noah Cameron vs Kyle Leahy) - 2:15 PM ET - AZ @ COL (Eduardo Rodriguez vs Tomoyuki Sugano) - 3:10 PM ET - BAL @ WSH (Chris Bassitt vs Cade Cavalli) - 4:05 PM ET - PHI @ PIT (Cristopher Sánchez vs Bubba Chandler) - 4:05 PM ET - MIA @ TB (Sandy Alcantara vs Nick Martinez) - 4:10 PM ET - CIN @ CLE (Chris Paddack vs Joey Cantillo) - 6:10 PM ET - TEX @ HOU (Jacob deGrom vs Kai-Wei Teng) - 7:10 PM ET - CHC @ CWS (Jameson Taillon vs Davis Martin) - 7:10 PM ET - MIL @ MIN (Logan Henderson vs Connor Prielipp) - 7:10 PM ET - SD @ SEA (Walker Buehler vs Logan Gilbert) - 7:15 PM ET - BOS @ ATL (Payton Tolle vs Bryce Elder) - 7:15 PM ET - NYY @ NYM (Carlos Rodón vs Huascar Brazobán) - 7:15 PM ET - LAD @ LAA (Justin Wrobleski vs José Soriano) - 9:38 PM ET - SF @ ATH (Trevor McDonald vs Luis Severino) - 9:40 PM ET ## Pick 1: Kyle Schwarber — PHI vs Bubba Chandler (RHP) *PNC Park · 18 HR · 24.8% barrel · 103.7 mph EV · 0.573 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.31* **Top play tonight.** The reason Kyle Schwarber jumps off the board: Bubba Chandler can be hit on his slider, which batters are slugging 0.737 against this season. 14% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Kyle Schwarber is going to see it. A 24.8% barrel rate is the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry — that profile carries the lean. Schwarber is on a serious heater right now — 8 HR in 7 games is well past his baseline. ## Pick 2: Luke Raley — SEA vs Walker Buehler (RHP) *T-Mobile Park · 10 HR · 24.3% barrel · 104.4 mph EV · 0.621 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.92* The reason Luke Raley jumps off the board: Walker Buehler can be hit on his curveball, which batters are slugging 0.533 against this season. 16% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Luke Raley is going to see it. The barrel rate (24.3%) is in the elite, top-of-league tier — that is a real edge, not a small-sample mirage. Recent form lines up: 4 bombs in his last 7 contests. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Pick 3: Yordan Alvarez — HOU vs Jacob deGrom (RHP) *Daikin Park · 14 HR · 17.9% barrel · 105.8 mph EV · 0.741 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.11* Yordan Alvarez is a lefty who eats right-handers — .624 slugging in that split with 8 home runs. Jacob deGrom fits the script. A 17.9% barrel rate is the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry — that profile carries the lean. ## Honorable Mentions - **Munetaka Murakami** (CWS) vs Jameson Taillon — 22.7% barrel rate. - **Randal Grichuk** (CWS) vs Jameson Taillon — 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Byron Buxton** (MIN) vs Logan Henderson — 4 HR in his last 7 games. - **Shea Langeliers** (ATH) vs Trevor McDonald — 16.9% barrel rate. - **Jordan Walker** (STL) vs Noah Cameron — 3 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 12 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-may-16-2026) - no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*