# MLB Dinger Picks Today (May 14, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets > Data-driven MLB home run picks for today's 11-game slate. 12-factor Statcast model combines barrel rate, exit velocity, platoon matchups, pitcher vulnerability **Date:** 2026-05-14 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-14-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Thursday, May 14, 2026** are Yordan Alvarez (Score: 65 — Yordan Alvarez rates a 65.3 dinger composite score against Luis Castillo today), Luke Raley (Score: 65 — Luke Raley rates a 64.5 dinger composite score against Mike Burrows today), Kyle Schwarber (Score: 63 — Kyle Schwarber rates a 63.0 dinger composite score against Ranger Suarez today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 12-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today - May 14, 2026 Best HR plays from tonight's 11-game slate. 206 batters evaluated on barrel rate, pitcher matchup, and recent form. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - live Per-pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - May 13](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-13-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - COL @ PIT (Chase Dollander vs Mason Montgomery) - 12:35 PM ET - WSH @ CIN (Foster Griffin vs Chase Burns) - 12:40 PM ET - DET @ NYM (Keider Montero vs Nolan McLean) - 1:10 PM ET - MIA @ MIN (Braxton Garrett vs Zebby Matthews) - 1:40 PM ET - SD @ MIL (Griffin Canning vs Kyle Harrison) - 1:40 PM ET - SEA @ HOU (Luis Castillo vs Mike Burrows) - 2:10 PM ET - STL @ ATH (Michael McGreevy vs Jacob Lopez) - 3:05 PM ET - PHI @ BOS (Jesús Luzardo vs Ranger Suarez) - 6:45 PM ET - CHC @ ATL (Ben Brown vs Chris Sale) - 7:15 PM ET - KC @ CWS (Kris Bubic vs Anthony Kay) - 7:40 PM ET - SF @ LAD (Landen Roupp vs Emmet Sheehan) - 10:10 PM ET ## Pick 1: Yordan Alvarez — HOU vs Luis Castillo (RHP) *Daikin Park · 13 HR · 18.0% barrel · 105.8 mph EV · 0.720 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.81* **Top play tonight.** Lock in on the matchup math: 45% of Luis Castillo's pitches are his 4-seam fastball, and hitters are punishing it (.561 SLG). Yordan Alvarez has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. Alvarez squares the ball up at 18.0% — elite, top-of-league contact quality on the year. ## Pick 2: Luke Raley — SEA vs Mike Burrows (RHP) *Daikin Park · 8 HR · 22.2% barrel · 103.9 mph EV · 0.601 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.58* Lock in on the matchup math: 28% of Mike Burrows's pitches are his 4-seam fastball, and hitters are punishing it (.725 SLG). Luke Raley has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. Raley squares the ball up at 22.2% — elite, top-of-league contact quality on the year. Raley has been swinging at peak — 3 long balls in his last 7 games. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Pick 3: Kyle Schwarber — PHI vs Ranger Suarez (LHP) *Fenway Park · 17 HR · 24.5% barrel · 103.7 mph EV · 0.571 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.42* Ranger Suarez throws his changeup 19% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.520 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Kyle Schwarber should be sitting on. Schwarber squares the ball up at 24.5% — elite, top-of-league contact quality on the year. The bat has been a different gear lately — 6 HR in his last 7 games is well ahead of his season pace. That said — Ranger Suarez's 0.42 HR/9 is genuinely good. Treat this as a power play more than a matchup play. ## Honorable Mentions - **James Wood** (WSH) vs Chase Burns — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Shea Langeliers** (ATH) vs Michael McGreevy — 4 HR in his last 7 games. - **Jordan Walker** (STL) vs Jacob Lopez — 18.3% barrel rate. - **Matt Olson** (ATL) vs Ben Brown — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **JJ Bleday** (CIN) vs Foster Griffin — 15.8% barrel rate. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 12 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-may-14-2026) - no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*