# MLB Dinger Picks Today (May 13, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets > Dinger of the Day for May 13, 2026: 15-game slate scored across 12 Statcast and matchup factors. JJ Bleday leads tonight's HR picks. Updated daily. **Date:** 2026-05-13 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-13-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Wednesday, May 13, 2026** are JJ Bleday (Score: 72 — JJ Bleday rates a 71.6 dinger composite score against Jake Irvin today), James Wood (Score: 72 — James Wood rates a 71.5 dinger composite score against Nick Lodolo today), Kyle Schwarber (Score: 71 — Kyle Schwarber rates a 70.9 dinger composite score against Sonny Gray today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 12-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today - May 13, 2026 15-game slate, 284 eligible bats. These Statcast profiles and matchups stand out. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - live Per-pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - May 12](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-12-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - NYY @ BAL (Max Fried vs Kyle Bradish) - 1:05 PM ET - LAA @ CLE (Reid Detmers vs Parker Messick) - 1:10 PM ET - WSH @ CIN (Jake Irvin vs Nick Lodolo) - 6:40 PM ET - COL @ PIT (Jose Quintana vs Mitch Keller) - 6:40 PM ET - PHI @ BOS (Andrew Painter vs Sonny Gray) - 6:45 PM ET - TB @ TOR (Griffin Jax vs Dylan Cease) - 7:07 PM ET - DET @ NYM (Framber Valdez vs Christian Scott) - 7:10 PM ET - CHC @ ATL (Shota Imanaga vs JR Ritchie) - 7:15 PM ET - KC @ CWS (Seth Lugo vs Noah Schultz) - 7:40 PM ET - MIA @ MIN (Max Meyer vs Simeon Woods Richardson) - 7:40 PM ET - SD @ MIL (Michael King vs Jacob Misiorowski) - 7:40 PM ET - AZ @ TEX (Ryne Nelson vs Kumar Rocker) - 8:05 PM ET - SEA @ HOU (Bryce Miller vs Lance McCullers Jr.) - 8:10 PM ET - STL @ ATH (Matthew Liberatore vs J.T. Ginn) - 9:40 PM ET - SF @ LAD (Robbie Ray vs Shohei Ohtani) - 10:10 PM ET ## Pick 1: JJ Bleday — CIN vs Jake Irvin (RHP) *Great American Ball Park · 4 HR · 17.1% barrel · 102.8 mph EV · 0.699 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.92* **Top play tonight.** The reason JJ Bleday jumps off the board: Jake Irvin can be hit on his cutter, which batters are slugging 0.640 against this season. 13% of his pitches are that one offering, which means JJ Bleday is going to see it. A 17.1% barrel rate is the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry — that profile carries the lean. ## Pick 2: James Wood — WSH vs Nick Lodolo (LHP) *Great American Ball Park · 11 HR · 27.1% barrel · 107.3 mph EV · 0.606 xSLG · opp HR/9 3.53* The matchup is a giveaway: Nick Lodolo surrenders 3.53 HR per nine innings — among the worst rates in baseball. James Wood sits 11 deep already this year and can add to it tonight. He is also trending the right way — 2 HR over his last 7 games. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Pick 3: Kyle Schwarber — PHI vs Sonny Gray (RHP) *Fenway Park · 16 HR · 23.2% barrel · 103.4 mph EV · 0.557 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.58* The reason Kyle Schwarber jumps off the board: Sonny Gray can be hit on his curveball, which batters are slugging 0.545 against this season. 20% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Kyle Schwarber is going to see it. Underneath the matchup is a 23.2% barrel rate, which is elite, top-of-league territory. The recent stretch tells you the timing is right: 6 HR in 7 games. Temp is working against him: 46°F at first pitch knocks distance off any flyball. One reason to size down: Sonny Gray has been stingy with the long ball this year (0.58 HR/9), so the matchup is tougher than the bat profile alone reads. ## Honorable Mentions - **Aaron Judge** (NYY) vs Kyle Bradish — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Shea Langeliers** (ATH) vs Matthew Liberatore — 4 HR in his last 7 games. - **Luke Raley** (SEA) vs Lance McCullers Jr. — 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Yordan Alvarez** (HOU) vs Bryce Miller — 18.1% barrel rate. - **Michael Conforto** (CHC) vs JR Ritchie — 2 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 12 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-may-13-2026) - no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*