# MLB Dinger Picks Today (May 11, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets > MLB HR picks for May 11, 2026 - Aaron Judge leads the board across 6 games. Statcast power metrics, matchup context, and hot streaks scored. **Date:** 2026-05-11 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-11-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Monday, May 11, 2026** are Aaron Judge (Score: 75 — Aaron Judge rates a 74.7 dinger composite score against Brandon Young today), Ben Rice (Score: 68 — Ben Rice rates a 67.8 dinger composite score against Brandon Young today), Luke Raley (Score: 67 — Luke Raley rates a 66.5 dinger composite score against Peter Lambert today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 12-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today - May 11, 2026 Every qualified bat scored across 12 factors. 104 candidates, 6 games - here are the plays. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - live Per-pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - May 10](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-10-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - LAA @ CLE (TBD vs Joey Cantillo) - 6:10 PM ET - NYY @ BAL (Ryan Weathers vs Brandon Young) - 6:35 PM ET - TB @ TOR (Drew Rasmussen vs Kevin Gausman) - 7:07 PM ET - AZ @ TEX (Michael Soroka vs Nathan Eovaldi) - 8:05 PM ET - SEA @ HOU (George Kirby vs Peter Lambert) - 8:10 PM ET - SF @ LAD (Trevor McDonald vs Roki Sasaki) - 10:10 PM ET ## Pick 1: Aaron Judge — NYY vs Brandon Young (RHP) *Oriole Park at Camden Yards · 15 HR · 26.1% barrel · 106.2 mph EV · 0.663 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.51* **Top play tonight.** Brandon Young throws his split-finger 22% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.588 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Aaron Judge should be sitting on. Judge's 26.1% barrel rate is barrel rate that screams "elite contact quality" — top decile across MLB. Judge has been swinging at peak — 3 long balls in his last 7 games. ## Pick 2: Ben Rice — NYY vs Brandon Young (RHP) *Oriole Park at Camden Yards · 12 HR · 19.3% barrel · 103.6 mph EV · 0.606 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.51* Ben Rice's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Brandon Young leans on a split-finger 22% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .588 against it. Underneath the matchup is a 19.3% barrel rate, which is elite, top-of-league territory. Rice has been swinging at peak — 2 long balls in his last 7 games. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Pick 3: Luke Raley — SEA vs Peter Lambert (RHP) *Daikin Park · 8 HR · 22.0% barrel · 104.0 mph EV · 0.606 xSLG* Lock in on the matchup math: 18% of Peter Lambert's pitches are his cutter, and hitters are punishing it (.462 SLG). Luke Raley has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. His 22.0% barrel rate (elite, top-of-league) backs the take. Hot streak is real: 3 HR over the last 7 games is double his typical pace. ## Honorable Mentions - **Mike Trout** (LAA) vs Joey Cantillo — 23.9% barrel rate. - **Casey Schmitt** (SF) vs Roki Sasaki — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Kazuma Okamoto** (TOR) vs Drew Rasmussen — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Paul Goldschmidt** (NYY) vs Brandon Young — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Dalton Rushing** (LAD) vs Trevor McDonald — 7 on the season. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 12 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-may-11-2026) - no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*