# MLB Dinger Picks Today (May 10, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets > Data-driven MLB home run picks for today's 15-game slate. 12-factor Statcast model combines barrel rate, exit velocity, platoon matchups, pitcher vulnerability **Date:** 2026-05-10 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-10-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Sunday, May 10, 2026** are Yordan Alvarez (Score: 74 — Yordan Alvarez rates a 73.5 dinger composite score against Andrew Abbott today), Munetaka Murakami (Score: 71 — Munetaka Murakami rates a 71.1 dinger composite score against Logan Gilbert today), Aaron Judge (Score: 70 — Aaron Judge rates a 70.1 dinger composite score against Logan Henderson today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 12-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today - May 10, 2026 15 games on the board. These bats have the Statcast profiles and matchups to go deep. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - live Per-pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - May 9](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-9-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - WSH @ MIA (Cade Cavalli vs Sandy Alcantara) - 12:15 PM ET - ATH @ BAL (Luis Severino vs Chris Bassitt) - 1:35 PM ET - TB @ BOS (Nick Martinez vs Payton Tolle) - 1:35 PM ET - COL @ PHI (Tomoyuki Sugano vs Cristopher Sánchez) - 1:35 PM ET - LAA @ TOR (José Soriano vs Spencer Miles) - 1:37 PM ET - HOU @ CIN (Kai-Wei Teng vs Andrew Abbott) - 1:40 PM ET - MIN @ CLE (Andrew Morris vs Gavin Williams) - 1:40 PM ET - SEA @ CWS (Logan Gilbert vs Davis Martin) - 2:10 PM ET - NYY @ MIL (Carlos Rodón vs Logan Henderson) - 2:10 PM ET - CHC @ TEX (Jameson Taillon vs Jacob deGrom) - 2:35 PM ET - PIT @ SF (Bubba Chandler vs Tyler Mahle) - 4:05 PM ET - NYM @ AZ (Huascar Brazobán vs Eduardo Rodriguez) - 4:10 PM ET - STL @ SD (Kyle Leahy vs Walker Buehler) - 4:10 PM ET - ATL @ LAD (Bryce Elder vs Justin Wrobleski) - 4:10 PM ET - DET @ KC (Brenan Hanifee vs Noah Cameron) - 7:20 PM ET ## Pick 1: Yordan Alvarez — HOU vs Andrew Abbott (LHP) *Great American Ball Park · 13 HR · 18.5% barrel · 105.7 mph EV · 0.773 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.39* **Top play tonight.** Lock in on the matchup math: 19% of Andrew Abbott's pitches are his sweeper, and hitters are punishing it (.484 SLG). Yordan Alvarez has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. A 18.5% barrel rate is the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry — that profile carries the lean. ## Pick 2: Munetaka Murakami — CWS vs Logan Gilbert (RHP) *Rate Field · 15 HR · 22.8% barrel · 105.9 mph EV · 0.577 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.18* Munetaka Murakami's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Logan Gilbert leans on a 4-seam fastball 30% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .730 against it. Murakami's 22.8% barrel rate is barrel rate that screams "elite contact quality" — top decile across MLB. Murakami has been swinging at peak — 2 long balls in his last 7 games. Weather flag — 49°F is cold enough to suppress the long ball. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Pick 3: Aaron Judge — NYY vs Logan Henderson (RHP) *American Family Field · 15 HR · 26.1% barrel · 106.2 mph EV · 0.673 xSLG* Barrel rate is the cleanest single predictor of home runs, and Aaron Judge's elite 26.1% barrel rate (90th+ percentile) sits in territory only a handful of bats reach. Pair that with 106.2 mph average exit velocity and the ceiling is obvious. 3 HR in his last 7 games means the bat is on time, not just on paper. ## Honorable Mentions - **Michael Conforto** (CHC) vs Jacob deGrom — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Byron Buxton** (MIN) vs Gavin Williams — 4 HR in his last 7 games. - **Mike Trout** (LAA) vs Spencer Miles — 23.9% barrel rate. - **Ben Rice** (NYY) vs Logan Henderson — 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Shea Langeliers** (ATH) vs Chris Bassitt — 3 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 12 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-may-10-2026) - no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*