# MLB Dinger Picks Today (May 1, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets > Who hits a home run tonight? 15 games analyzed through barrel rate, xSLG, platoon splits, and pitcher HR/9 - Hunter Goodman tops the dinger board. **Date:** 2026-05-01 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-1-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Friday, May 1, 2026** are Hunter Goodman (Score: 65 — Hunter Goodman rates a 65.0 dinger composite score against Grant Holmes today), Matt Olson (Score: 64 — Matt Olson rates a 64.0 dinger composite score against Jose Quintana today), Kyle Schwarber (Score: 62 — Kyle Schwarber rates a 62.3 dinger composite score against Eury Pérez today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 12-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today - May 1, 2026 241 power bats scored across 15 games. These are tonight's top dinger targets. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - live Per-pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - April 30](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-apr-30-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - AZ @ CHC (Zac Gallen vs Colin Rea) - 2:20 PM ET - TEX @ DET (MacKenzie Gore vs Jack Flaherty) - 6:40 PM ET - CIN @ PIT (Brady Singer vs Mitch Keller) - 6:45 PM ET - MIL @ WSH (Jacob Misiorowski vs Jake Irvin) - 6:45 PM ET - BAL @ NYY (TBD vs Will Warren) - 7:05 PM ET - HOU @ BOS (Mike Burrows vs TBD) - 7:10 PM ET - SF @ TB (Robbie Ray vs Shane McClanahan) - 7:10 PM ET - PHI @ MIA (Zack Wheeler vs Eury Pérez) - 7:10 PM ET - TOR @ MIN (Patrick Corbin vs Simeon Woods Richardson) - 8:10 PM ET - LAD @ STL (Emmet Sheehan vs Matthew Liberatore) - 8:15 PM ET - ATL @ COL (Grant Holmes vs Jose Quintana) - 8:40 PM ET - NYM @ LAA (Christian Scott vs Walbert Urena) - 9:38 PM ET - CLE @ ATH (Joey Cantillo vs J.T. Ginn) - 9:40 PM ET - CWS @ SD (Noah Schultz vs Germán Márquez) - 9:40 PM ET - KC @ SEA (Cole Ragans vs Bryan Woo) - 9:45 PM ET ## Pick 1: Hunter Goodman — COL vs Grant Holmes (RHP) *Coors Field · 9 HR · 16.4% barrel · 104.0 mph EV · 0.484 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.40* **Top play tonight.** Streaky players are predictable in one way: they keep streaking until they don't. Hunter Goodman sits at 4 HR over his last 7 games while hitting .300, and the matchup tonight does nothing to slow him down. Goodman's 16.4% barrel rate is barrel rate that screams "elite contact quality" — top decile across MLB. Grant Holmes has been giving up 1.40 HR/9 this year, well above league average. Coors elevation does the rest — 5,200 feet of thin air adds carry. ## Pick 2: Matt Olson — ATL vs Jose Quintana (LHP) *Coors Field · 9 HR · 18.9% barrel · 105.0 mph EV · 0.596 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.99* When a starter posts a 1.99 HR/9, you go find the right-handed power bat in the lineup and ride it. Tonight that is Matt Olson (9 HR on the season) against Jose Quintana. Recent form lines up: 2 bombs in his last 7 contests. Park factor is the kicker: 5,200 ft means warning-track flies become souvenirs. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Pick 3: Kyle Schwarber — PHI vs Eury Pérez (RHP) *loanDepot park · 9 HR · 20.0% barrel · 102.3 mph EV · 0.478 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.74* Kyle Schwarber's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Eury Pérez leans on a slider 18% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .833 against it. A 20.0% barrel rate is the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry — that profile carries the lean. Schwarber has been swinging at peak — 3 long balls in his last 7 games. ## Honorable Mentions - **Munetaka Murakami** (CWS) vs Germán Márquez — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Mike Trout** (LAA) vs Christian Scott — 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Max Muncy** (LAD) vs Matthew Liberatore — 17.8% barrel rate. - **Juan Soto** (NYM) vs Walbert Urena — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Mickey Moniak** (COL) vs Grant Holmes — 2 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 12 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-may-1-2026) - no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*