# MLB Dinger Picks Today (March 28, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets

> MLB HR picks for March 28, 2026 - Kyle Schwarber leads the board across 15 games. Statcast power metrics, matchup context, and hot streaks scored.

**Date:** 2026-03-28  
**Author:** HeatCheck HQ  
**Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props  
**Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-mar-28-2026  
**Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io

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**Today's best MLB home run picks for Saturday, March 28, 2026** are Kyle Schwarber (Score: 65 — Kyle Schwarber rates a 64), Aaron Judge (Score: 65 — Aaron Judge rates a 64), Giancarlo Stanton (Score: 61 — Giancarlo Stanton rates a 60). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 11-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily.

# MLB Dinger Picks Today - March 28, 2026

Every qualified bat scored across 11 factors. 355 candidates, 15 games - here are the plays.

> [Due for HR Dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr) - live Statcast profiles for every batter.

> **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - March 27](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-mar-27-2026)

## Tonight's Slate

- TB @ STL (Joe Boyle vs Michael McGreevy) - 2:15 PM ET
- WSH @ CHC (Miles Mikolas vs Cade Horton) - 2:20 PM ET
- ATH @ TOR (Jeffrey Springs vs Dylan Cease) - 3:07 PM ET
- MIN @ BAL (Taj Bradley vs Kyle Bradish) - 4:05 PM ET
- TEX @ PHI (Jacob deGrom vs Aaron Nola) - 4:05 PM ET
- BOS @ CIN (Sonny Gray vs Brady Singer) - 4:10 PM ET
- PIT @ NYM (Mitch Keller vs David Peterson) - 4:10 PM ET
- COL @ MIA (Michael Lorenzen vs Eury Pérez) - 4:10 PM ET
- LAA @ HOU (Reid Detmers vs Cristian Javier) - 7:10 PM ET
- CWS @ MIL (Sean Burke vs Chad Patrick) - 7:10 PM ET
- KC @ ATL (Michael Wacha vs Reynaldo López) - 7:15 PM ET
- NYY @ SF (Will Warren vs Tyler Mahle) - 7:15 PM ET
- DET @ SD (Jack Flaherty vs Randy Vásquez) - 8:40 PM ET
- AZ @ LAD (Eduardo Rodriguez vs Tyler Glasnow) - 9:10 PM ET
- CLE @ SEA (Joey Cantillo vs Bryan Woo) - 9:40 PM ET

## Pick 1: Kyle Schwarber - PHI vs Jacob deGrom (RHP)

56 HR on season | Citizens Bank Park

- **Barrel %:** 20.8%
- **Exit Velocity:** 105.7 mph
- **xSLG:** 0.584
- **FB% / Launch Angle:** 34% / 20.1°
- **Sweet Spot %:** 35.3%
- **Season HRs:** 56
- **HR Pace:** 1 per 13 PA
- **Recent Form (L1):** 1 HR, 0.250 AVG
- **Platoon SLG (vs RHP):** 1.333
- **Platoon HR (vs RHP):** 1
- **Opposing Pitcher HR/9:** 1.20

The numbers point to Kyle Schwarber tonight. Best score on the board. Statcast power profile: elite 20.8% barrel rate, 105.7 mph exit velocity, 0.584 xSLG. He's already smashed 56 homers this season (1 HR per 13 PA). Kyle Schwarber (LHB) has the platoon edge against the R-handed Jacob deGrom - slugging 1.333 with 1 HR in that split. Jacob deGrom allows 1.20 HR/9 - around league average and hittable for elite power bats.

## Pick 2: Aaron Judge - NYY vs Tyler Mahle (RHP)

53 HR on season | Oracle Park

- **Barrel %:** 24.7%
- **Exit Velocity:** 106.8 mph
- **xSLG:** 0.708
- **FB% / Launch Angle:** 38% / 19.0°
- **Sweet Spot %:** 39.4%
- **Season HRs:** 53
- **HR Pace:** 1 per 13 PA
- **Recent Form (L2):** 1 HR, 0.111 AVG
- **Opposing Pitcher HR/9:** 1.20

Aaron Judge also checks out - good power profile, soft matchup. Statcast power profile: elite 24.7% barrel rate, 106.8 mph exit velocity, 0.708 xSLG. He's already smashed 53 homers this season (1 HR per 13 PA). Tyler Mahle allows 1.20 HR/9 - around league average and hittable for elite power bats.

> **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Due for HR dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr).

## Pick 3: Giancarlo Stanton - NYY vs Tyler Mahle (RHP)

24 HR on season | Oracle Park

- **Barrel %:** 22.1%
- **Exit Velocity:** 107.6 mph
- **xSLG:** 0.520
- **FB% / Launch Angle:** 31% / 17.5°
- **Sweet Spot %:** 35.7%
- **Season HRs:** 24
- **HR Pace:** 1 per 12 PA
- **Recent Form (L2):** 1 HR, 0.500 AVG
- **Platoon SLG (vs RHP):** 1.167
- **Platoon HR (vs RHP):** 1
- **Opposing Pitcher HR/9:** 1.20

Giancarlo Stanton is worth targeting - the numbers and matchup both hold up. Statcast power profile: elite 22.1% barrel rate, 107.6 mph exit velocity, 0.520 xSLG. He's already smashed 24 homers this season (1 HR per 12 PA). Tyler Mahle allows 1.20 HR/9 - around league average and hittable for elite power bats.

## Honorable Mentions

- **Cal Raleigh** (SEA) vs Joey Cantillo - 19.5% barrel, 103.0 EV, 0.547 xSLG, 60 HR, 1.20 opp HR/9
- **Carter Jensen** (KC) vs Reynaldo López - 20.8% barrel, 105.7 EV, 0.633 xSLG, 3 HR, 1.20 opp HR/9
- **Nick Kurtz** (ATH) vs Dylan Cease - 18.4% barrel, 104.0 EV, 0.537 xSLG, 36 HR, 1.20 opp HR/9
- **Michael Busch** (CHC) vs Miles Mikolas - 17.1% barrel, 101.7 EV, 0.548 xSLG, 34 HR, 1.20 opp HR/9
- **Sal Stewart** (CIN) vs Sonny Gray - 17.5% barrel, 103.5 EV, 0.626 xSLG, 5 HR, 1.20 opp HR/9

## Related Guides

- [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters)
- [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide)
- [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained)

## Before You Lock

Check the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline.

Our dinger model combines 11 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr).

**More from HeatCheck HQ:**
- [Due for a HR Dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr) - Statcast power profiles for every batter
- [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-mar-28-2026) - no run first inning best bets
- [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks
- [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown

*Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).*

## Related Resources

- Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props)
- Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day)
- Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq)
- Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog)


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*Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*