# MLB Dinger Picks Today (March 27, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets

> Data-driven MLB home run picks for today's 8-game slate. 11-factor Statcast model combines barrel rate, exit velocity, platoon matchups, and pitcher vulnerabili

**Date:** 2026-03-27  
**Author:** HeatCheck HQ  
**Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props  
**Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-mar-27-2026  
**Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io

---

**Today's best MLB home run picks for Friday, March 27, 2026** are Aaron Judge (Score: 63 — Aaron Judge rates a 62), Carter Jensen (Score: 62 — Carter Jensen rates a 62), Nick Kurtz (Score: 62 — Nick Kurtz rates a 61). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 11-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily.

# MLB Dinger Picks Today - March 27, 2026

8 games on the board. These bats have the Statcast profiles and matchups to go deep.

> [Due for HR Dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr) - live Statcast profiles for every batter.

> **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - March 26](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-mar-26-2026)

## Tonight's Slate

- NYY @ SF (Cam Schlittler vs Robbie Ray) - 4:35 PM ET
- ATH @ TOR (Luis Severino vs Kevin Gausman) - 7:07 PM ET
- COL @ MIA (Kyle Freeland vs Sandy Alcantara) - 7:10 PM ET
- KC @ ATL (Cole Ragans vs Chris Sale) - 7:15 PM ET
- LAA @ HOU (Yusei Kikuchi vs Mike Burrows) - 8:15 PM ET
- DET @ SD (Framber Valdez vs Michael King) - 9:40 PM ET
- CLE @ SEA (Gavin Williams vs George Kirby) - 9:45 PM ET
- AZ @ LAD (Ryne Nelson vs Emmet Sheehan) - 10:10 PM ET

## Pick 1: Aaron Judge - NYY vs Robbie Ray (RHP)

53 HR on season | Oracle Park

- **Barrel %:** 24.7%
- **Exit Velocity:** 106.8 mph
- **xSLG:** 0.708
- **FB% / Launch Angle:** 38% / 19.0°
- **Sweet Spot %:** 39.4%
- **Season HRs:** 53
- **HR Pace:** 1 per 13 PA
- **Recent Form (L1):** 0 HR, 0.000 AVG
- **Opposing Pitcher HR/9:** 1.20

Aaron Judge has the clearest case tonight - elite Statcast numbers against a pitcher giving up the long ball. Statcast power profile: elite 24.7% barrel rate, 106.8 mph exit velocity, 0.708 xSLG. He's already smashed 53 homers this season (1 HR per 13 PA). Robbie Ray allows 1.20 HR/9 - around league average and hittable for elite power bats.

## Pick 2: Carter Jensen - KC vs Chris Sale (RHP)

3 HR on season | Truist Park

- **Barrel %:** 20.8%
- **Exit Velocity:** 105.7 mph
- **xSLG:** 0.633
- **FB% / Launch Angle:** 17% / 7.3°
- **Sweet Spot %:** 41.7%
- **Season HRs:** 3
- **HR Pace:** 1 per 23 PA
- **Opposing Pitcher HR/9:** 1.20

Carter Jensen is worth targeting - the numbers and matchup both hold up. Statcast power profile: elite 20.8% barrel rate, 105.7 mph exit velocity, 0.633 xSLG. Favorable LHB vs RHP platoon matchup against Chris Sale. Chris Sale allows 1.20 HR/9 - around league average and hittable for elite power bats.

> **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Due for HR dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr).

## Pick 3: Nick Kurtz - ATH vs Kevin Gausman (RHP)

36 HR on season | Rogers Centre

- **Barrel %:** 18.4%
- **Exit Velocity:** 104.0 mph
- **xSLG:** 0.537
- **FB% / Launch Angle:** 35% / 15.3°
- **Sweet Spot %:** 39.0%
- **Season HRs:** 36
- **HR Pace:** 1 per 14 PA
- **Opposing Pitcher HR/9:** 1.20

Nick Kurtz's Statcast profile fits this matchup well. Statcast power profile: elite 18.4% barrel rate, 104.0 mph exit velocity, 0.537 xSLG. He's already smashed 36 homers this season (1 HR per 14 PA). Favorable LHB vs RHP platoon matchup against Kevin Gausman. Kevin Gausman allows 1.20 HR/9 - around league average and hittable for elite power bats.

## Honorable Mentions

- **Cal Raleigh** (SEA) vs Gavin Williams - 19.5% barrel, 103.0 EV, 0.547 xSLG, 60 HR, 1.20 opp HR/9
- **Daulton Varsho** (TOR) vs Luis Severino - 15.9% barrel, 101.9 EV, 0.494 xSLG, 20 HR, 1.20 opp HR/9
- **Dominic Canzone** (SEA) vs Gavin Williams - 14.4% barrel, 103.0 EV, 0.533 xSLG, 11 HR, 1.20 opp HR/9
- **Giancarlo Stanton** (NYY) vs Robbie Ray - 22.1% barrel, 107.6 EV, 0.520 xSLG, 24 HR, 1.20 opp HR/9
- **Mike Trout** (LAA) vs Mike Burrows - 15.8% barrel, 103.4 EV, 0.474 xSLG, 26 HR, 1.20 opp HR/9

## Related Guides

- [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters)
- [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide)
- [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained)

## Before You Lock

Check the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline.

Our dinger model combines 11 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr).

**More from HeatCheck HQ:**
- [Due for a HR Dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr) - Statcast power profiles for every batter
- [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-mar-27-2026) - no run first inning best bets
- [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks
- [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown

*Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).*

## Related Resources

- Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props)
- Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day)
- Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq)
- Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog)


---

*Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*