# MLB Dinger Picks Today (March 26, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets

> Dinger of the Day for March 26, 2026: 11-game slate scored across 11 Statcast and matchup factors. Kyle Schwarber leads tonight's HR picks. Updated daily.

**Date:** 2026-03-26  
**Author:** HeatCheck HQ  
**Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props  
**Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-mar-26-2026  
**Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io

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**Today's best MLB home run picks for Thursday, March 26, 2026** are Kyle Schwarber (Score: 69 — Kyle Schwarber rates a 69), Cal Raleigh (Score: 67 — Cal Raleigh rates a 67), Sal Stewart (Score: 63 — Sal Stewart rates a 62). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 11-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily.

# MLB Dinger Picks Today - March 26, 2026

257 batters, 11 games. Here's where the power and matchup line up for dingers tonight.

> [Due for HR Dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr) - live Statcast profiles for every batter.

> **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - March 25](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-mar-25-2026)

## Tonight's Slate

- PIT @ NYM (Paul Skenes vs Freddy Peralta) - 1:15 PM ET
- CWS @ MIL (Shane Smith vs Jacob Misiorowski) - 2:10 PM ET
- WSH @ CHC (Cade Cavalli vs Matthew Boyd) - 2:20 PM ET
- MIN @ BAL (Joe Ryan vs Trevor Rogers) - 3:05 PM ET
- BOS @ CIN (Garrett Crochet vs Andrew Abbott) - 4:10 PM ET
- LAA @ HOU (José Soriano vs Hunter Brown) - 4:10 PM ET
- DET @ SD (Tarik Skubal vs Nick Pivetta) - 4:10 PM ET
- TB @ STL (Drew Rasmussen vs Matthew Liberatore) - 4:15 PM ET
- TEX @ PHI (Nathan Eovaldi vs Cristopher Sánchez) - 4:15 PM ET
- AZ @ LAD (Zac Gallen vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto) - 8:30 PM ET
- CLE @ SEA (Tanner Bibee vs Logan Gilbert) - 10:10 PM ET

## Pick 1: Kyle Schwarber - PHI vs Nathan Eovaldi (RHP)

56 HR on season | Citizens Bank Park

- **Barrel %:** 20.8%
- **Exit Velocity:** 105.7 mph
- **xSLG:** 0.584
- **FB% / Launch Angle:** 34% / 20.1°
- **Sweet Spot %:** 35.3%
- **Season HRs:** 56
- **HR Pace:** 1 per 13 PA
- **Opposing Pitcher HR/9:** 1.20

Kyle Schwarber is tonight's top HR play. The Statcast numbers and matchup both say yes. Statcast power profile: elite 20.8% barrel rate, 105.7 mph exit velocity, 0.584 xSLG. He's already smashed 56 homers this season (1 HR per 13 PA). Favorable LHB vs RHP platoon matchup against Nathan Eovaldi. Nathan Eovaldi allows 1.20 HR/9 - around league average and hittable for elite power bats. Wind (14 mph SW) could be a factor - check direction at game time.

## Pick 2: Cal Raleigh - SEA vs Tanner Bibee (RHP)

60 HR on season | T-Mobile Park

- **Barrel %:** 19.5%
- **Exit Velocity:** 103.0 mph
- **xSLG:** 0.547
- **FB% / Launch Angle:** 42% / 25.2°
- **Sweet Spot %:** 35.3%
- **Season HRs:** 60
- **HR Pace:** 1 per 12 PA
- **Opposing Pitcher HR/9:** 1.20

Cal Raleigh also checks out - good power profile, soft matchup. Statcast power profile: elite 19.5% barrel rate, 103.0 mph exit velocity, 0.547 xSLG. He's already smashed 60 homers this season (1 HR per 12 PA). Tanner Bibee allows 1.20 HR/9 - around league average and hittable for elite power bats.

> **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Due for HR dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr).

## Pick 3: Sal Stewart - CIN vs Garrett Crochet (RHP)

5 HR on season | Great American Ball Park

- **Barrel %:** 17.5%
- **Exit Velocity:** 103.5 mph
- **xSLG:** 0.626
- **FB% / Launch Angle:** 40% / 17.9°
- **Sweet Spot %:** 35.0%
- **Season HRs:** 5
- **HR Pace:** 1 per 12 PA
- **Opposing Pitcher HR/9:** 1.20

The HR case for Sal Stewart: strong power metrics, pitcher has been getting hurt. Statcast power profile: elite 17.5% barrel rate, 103.5 mph exit velocity, 0.626 xSLG. 5 HRs on the season with a 8.6% HR/PA rate. Garrett Crochet allows 1.20 HR/9 - around league average and hittable for elite power bats.

## Honorable Mentions

- **Michael Busch** (CHC) vs Cade Cavalli - 17.1% barrel, 101.7 EV, 0.548 xSLG, 34 HR, 1.20 opp HR/9
- **Juan Soto** (NYM) vs Paul Skenes - 18.1% barrel, 104.5 EV, 0.608 xSLG, 43 HR, 1.20 opp HR/9
- **Yordan Alvarez** (HOU) vs José Soriano - 13.8% barrel, 104.6 EV, 0.549 xSLG, 6 HR, 1.20 opp HR/9
- **Pete Alonso** (BAL) vs Joe Ryan - 18.9% barrel, 105.1 EV, 0.572 xSLG, 38 HR, 1.20 opp HR/9
- **Colson Montgomery** (CWS) vs Jacob Misiorowski - 14.5% barrel, 103.0 EV, 0.501 xSLG, 21 HR, 1.20 opp HR/9

## Related Guides

- [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters)
- [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide)
- [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained)

## Before You Lock

Check the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline.

Our dinger model combines 11 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr).

**More from HeatCheck HQ:**
- [Due for a HR Dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr) - Statcast power profiles for every batter
- [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-mar-26-2026) - no run first inning best bets
- [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks
- [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown

*Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).*

## Related Resources

- Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props)
- Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day)
- Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq)
- Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog)


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*Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*