# MLB Dinger Picks Today (June 9, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets > MLB HR picks for June 9, 2026 - Pete Crow-Armstrong leads the board across 15 games. Statcast power metrics, matchup context, and hot streaks scored. **Date:** 2026-06-09 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jun-9-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Tuesday, June 9, 2026** are Pete Crow-Armstrong (Score: 66 — Pete Crow-Armstrong rates a 66.0 dinger composite score against Tomoyuki Sugano today), Hunter Goodman (Score: 65 — Hunter Goodman rates a 65.0 dinger composite score against Colin Rea today), Ian Happ (Score: 65 — Ian Happ rates a 64.5 dinger composite score against Tomoyuki Sugano today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 12-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today - June 9, 2026 Every qualified bat scored across 12 factors. 296 candidates, 15 games - here are the plays. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - live Per-pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - June 8](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jun-8-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - SEA @ BAL (Logan Gilbert vs Trevor Rogers) - 6:35 PM ET - LAD @ PIT (Eric Lauer vs Paul Skenes) - 6:40 PM ET - BOS @ TB (Payton Tolle vs Nick Martinez) - 6:40 PM ET - MIN @ DET (Taj Bradley vs Troy Melton) - 6:40 PM ET - AZ @ MIA (Zac Gallen vs Max Meyer) - 6:40 PM ET - NYY @ CLE (Gerrit Cole vs Slade Cecconi) - 6:40 PM ET - PHI @ TOR (Zack Wheeler vs TBD) - 7:07 PM ET - STL @ NYM (Dustin May vs Freddy Peralta) - 7:10 PM ET - TEX @ KC (Nathan Eovaldi vs Stephen Kolek) - 7:40 PM ET - ATL @ CWS (Grant Holmes vs Erick Fedde) - 7:40 PM ET - CHC @ COL (Colin Rea vs Tomoyuki Sugano) - 8:40 PM ET - HOU @ LAA (Kai-Wei Teng vs Walbert Ureña) - 9:38 PM ET - CIN @ SD (Chase Burns vs Lucas Giolito) - 9:40 PM ET - WSH @ SF (Andrew Alvarez vs Adrian Houser) - 9:45 PM ET - MIL @ ATH (Robert Gasser vs J.T. Ginn) - 10:05 PM ET ## Pick 1: Pete Crow-Armstrong — CHC vs Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP) *Coors Field · 11 HR · 11.9% barrel · 102.7 mph EV · 0.484 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.41* **Top play tonight.** The reason Pete Crow-Armstrong jumps off the board: Tomoyuki Sugano can be hit on his cutter, which batters are slugging 0.828 against this season. 11% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Pete Crow-Armstrong is going to see it. The barrel rate (11.9%) is in the above average tier — that is a real edge, not a small-sample mirage. Crow-Armstrong has been swinging at peak — 4 long balls in his last 7 games. Tomoyuki Sugano averages just 91.5 mph on the heater — that's ML hitting practice for elite bats. Coors elevation does the rest — 5,200 feet of thin air adds carry. ## Pick 2: Hunter Goodman — COL vs Colin Rea (RHP) *Coors Field · 17 HR · 15.5% barrel · 102.9 mph EV · 0.442 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.39* The reason Hunter Goodman jumps off the board: Colin Rea can be hit on his 4-seam fastball, which batters are slugging 0.458 against this season. 43% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Hunter Goodman is going to see it. The barrel rate (15.5%) is in the elite, top-of-league tier — that is a real edge, not a small-sample mirage. He is also trending the right way — 4 HR over his last 7 games. 5,200 ft of elevation in Denver tacks on extra distance to anything in the air. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Pick 3: Ian Happ — CHC vs Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP) *Coors Field · 14 HR · 15.9% barrel · 102.2 mph EV · 0.462 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.41* Ian Happ's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Tomoyuki Sugano leans on a cutter 11% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .828 against it. A 15.9% barrel rate is the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry — that profile carries the lean. Tomoyuki Sugano's 91.5 mph average fastball is the kind of velocity power bats wait for. Park factor is the kicker: 5,200 ft means warning-track flies become souvenirs. ## Honorable Mentions - **James Wood** (WSH) vs Adrian Houser — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Shea Langeliers** (ATH) vs Robert Gasser — 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Michael Conforto** (CHC) vs Tomoyuki Sugano — 15.3% barrel rate. - **Yordan Alvarez** (HOU) vs Walbert Ureña — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Willson Contreras** (BOS) vs Nick Martinez — 2 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 12 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jun-9-2026) - no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*