# MLB Dinger Picks Today (June 7, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets > Dinger of the Day for June 7, 2026: 15-game slate scored across 12 Statcast and matchup factors. Kyle Schwarber leads tonight's HR picks. Updated daily. **Date:** 2026-06-07 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jun-7-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Sunday, June 7, 2026** are Kyle Schwarber (Score: 67 — Kyle Schwarber rates a 67.3 dinger composite score against David Sandlin today), Casey Schmitt (Score: 67 — Casey Schmitt rates a 66.5 dinger composite score against Jameson Taillon today), Yordan Alvarez (Score: 65 — Yordan Alvarez rates a 65.0 dinger composite score against Gage Jump today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 12-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today - June 7, 2026 15-game slate, 300 eligible bats. These Statcast profiles and matchups stand out. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - live Per-pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - June 6](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jun-6-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - PIT @ ATL (Bubba Chandler vs Bryce Elder) - 1:35 PM ET - CWS @ PHI (David Sandlin vs Aaron Nola) - 1:35 PM ET - BOS @ NYY (Connelly Early vs Cam Schlittler) - 1:35 PM ET - BAL @ TOR (Shane Baz vs Kevin Gausman) - 1:37 PM ET - SEA @ DET (Luis Castillo vs Jack Flaherty) - 1:40 PM ET - TB @ MIA (Griffin Jax vs Sandy Alcantara) - 1:40 PM ET - ATH @ HOU (Gage Jump vs Mike Burrows) - 2:10 PM ET - KC @ MIN (Noah Cameron vs Connor Prielipp) - 2:10 PM ET - CIN @ STL (Rhett Lowder vs Michael McGreevy) - 2:15 PM ET - CLE @ TEX (Joey Cantillo vs Jacob deGrom) - 2:35 PM ET - MIL @ COL (Shane Drohan vs Kyle Freeland) - 3:10 PM ET - WSH @ AZ (Cade Cavalli vs Michael Soroka) - 3:15 PM ET - LAA @ LAD (José Soriano vs Emmet Sheehan) - 4:10 PM ET - NYM @ SD (Sean Manaea vs Randy Vásquez) - 4:10 PM ET - SF @ CHC (Trevor McDonald vs Jameson Taillon) - 8:30 PM ET ## Pick 1: Kyle Schwarber — PHI vs David Sandlin (RHP) *Citizens Bank Park · 23 HR · 23.3% barrel · 103.8 mph EV · 0.537 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.80* **Top play tonight.** David Sandlin throws his 4-seam fastball 52% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.545 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Kyle Schwarber should be sitting on. His 23.3% barrel rate (elite, top-of-league) backs the take. Schwarber has been swinging at peak — 2 long balls in his last 7 games. ## Pick 2: Casey Schmitt — SF vs Jameson Taillon (RHP) *Wrigley Field · 13 HR · 14.0% barrel · 100.7 mph EV · 0.508 xSLG · opp HR/9 3.23* Lock in on the matchup math: 29% of Jameson Taillon's pitches are his 4-seam fastball, and hitters are punishing it (.717 SLG). Casey Schmitt has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. Schmitt squares the ball up at 14.0% — elite, top-of-league contact quality on the year. Recent form lines up: 3 bombs in his last 7 contests. An 89.9 mph fastball gives Schmitt something to drive. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Pick 3: Yordan Alvarez — HOU vs Gage Jump (LHP) *Daikin Park · 21 HR · 18.9% barrel · 106.1 mph EV · 0.742 xSLG* Barrel rate is the cleanest single predictor of home runs, and Yordan Alvarez's elite 18.9% barrel rate (90th+ percentile) sits in territory only a handful of bats reach. Pair that with 106.1 mph average exit velocity and the ceiling is obvious. Alvarez is at .385 over the last 7 — the bat is making loud contact, the long balls usually catch up. ## Honorable Mentions - **Jackson Chourio** (MIL) vs Kyle Freeland — 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Nick Kurtz** (ATH) vs Mike Burrows — 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **James Wood** (WSH) vs Michael Soroka — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Luke Raley** (SEA) vs Jack Flaherty — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **JJ Bleday** (CIN) vs Michael McGreevy — 3 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 12 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jun-7-2026) - no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*