# MLB Dinger Picks Today (June 4, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets > Data-driven MLB home run picks for today's 9-game slate. 12-factor Statcast model combines barrel rate, exit velocity, platoon matchups, pitcher vulnerability **Date:** 2026-06-04 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jun-4-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Thursday, June 4, 2026** are Yordan Alvarez (Score: 78 — Yordan Alvarez rates a 77.9 dinger composite score against Jared Jones today), Kyle Schwarber (Score: 65 — Kyle Schwarber rates a 64.6 dinger composite score against Lucas Giolito today), Nick Kurtz (Score: 61 — Nick Kurtz rates a 61.3 dinger composite score against Shota Imanaga today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 12-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today - June 4, 2026 143 power bats scored across 9 games. These are tonight's top dinger targets. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - live Per-pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - June 3](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jun-3-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - SD @ PHI (Lucas Giolito vs Zack Wheeler) - 1:05 PM ET - BAL @ BOS (Trevor Rogers vs Brayan Bello) - 1:35 PM ET - CLE @ NYY (Slade Cecconi vs Carlos Rodón) - 1:35 PM ET - SF @ MIL (Adrian Houser vs TBD) - 2:10 PM ET - TOR @ ATL (TBD vs Chris Sale) - 7:15 PM ET - KC @ MIN (Seth Lugo vs TBD) - 7:40 PM ET - ATH @ CHC (TBD vs Shota Imanaga) - 8:05 PM ET - PIT @ HOU (Jared Jones vs Kai-Wei Teng) - 8:10 PM ET - LAD @ AZ (Justin Wrobleski vs Ryne Nelson) - 9:40 PM ET ## Pick 1: Yordan Alvarez — HOU vs Jared Jones (RHP) *Daikin Park · 21 HR · 19.8% barrel · 106.0 mph EV · 0.744 xSLG · opp HR/9 4.39* **Top play tonight.** The matchup is a giveaway: Jared Jones surrenders 4.39 HR per nine innings — among the worst rates in baseball. Yordan Alvarez sits 21 deep already this year and can add to it tonight. 5 HR in his last 7 games means the bat is on time, not just on paper. ## Pick 2: Kyle Schwarber — PHI vs Lucas Giolito (RHP) *Citizens Bank Park · 22 HR · 23.3% barrel · 103.7 mph EV · 0.541 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.48* The reason Kyle Schwarber jumps off the board: Lucas Giolito can be hit on his 4-seam fastball, which batters are slugging 0.500 against this season. 50% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Kyle Schwarber is going to see it. Schwarber squares the ball up at 23.3% — elite, top-of-league contact quality on the year. He is also trending the right way — 2 HR over his last 7 games. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Pick 3: Nick Kurtz — ATH vs Shota Imanaga (LHP) *Wrigley Field · 11 HR · 18.8% barrel · 106.3 mph EV · 0.510 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.46* The reason Nick Kurtz jumps off the board: Shota Imanaga can be hit on his sweeper, which batters are slugging 0.600 against this season. 14% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Nick Kurtz is going to see it. Underneath the matchup is a 18.8% barrel rate, which is elite, top-of-league territory. Recent form lines up: 3 bombs in his last 7 contests. Shota Imanaga's 91.5 mph average fastball is the kind of velocity power bats wait for. ## Honorable Mentions - **Shea Langeliers** (ATH) vs Shota Imanaga — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Ben Rice** (NYY) vs Slade Cecconi — 17.4% barrel rate. - **Aaron Judge** (NYY) vs Slade Cecconi — 21.7% barrel rate. - **Byron Buxton** (MIN) vs Seth Lugo — 18.2% barrel rate. - **Shohei Ohtani** (LAD) vs Ryne Nelson — 2 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 12 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jun-4-2026) - no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*