# MLB Dinger Picks Today (June 28, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets > Who hits a home run tonight? 15 games analyzed through barrel rate, xSLG, platoon splits, and pitcher HR/9 - Yordan Alvarez tops the dinger board. **Date:** 2026-06-28 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jun-28-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Sunday, June 28, 2026** are Yordan Alvarez (Score: 64 — Yordan Alvarez rates a 63.6 dinger composite score against Casey Mize today), Byron Buxton (Score: 61 — Byron Buxton rates a 60.8 dinger composite score against Ryan Feltner today), Junior Caminero (Score: 57 — Junior Caminero rates a 57.4 dinger composite score against Merrill Kelly today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 14-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today - June 28, 2026 Best HR plays from tonight's 15-game slate. 306 batters evaluated on barrel rate, pitcher matchup, and recent form. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - live Per-pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - June 27](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jun-27-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - WSH @ BAL (Zack Littell vs Kyle Bradish) - 1:35 PM ET - CIN @ PIT (Brady Singer vs Mitch Keller) - 1:35 PM ET - TEX @ TOR (Kumar Rocker vs Shane Bieber) - 1:37 PM ET - HOU @ DET (Hunter Brown vs Casey Mize) - 1:40 PM ET - SEA @ CLE (George Kirby vs Gavin Williams) - 1:40 PM ET - AZ @ TB (Merrill Kelly vs Drew Rasmussen) - 1:40 PM ET - PHI @ NYM (Jesús Luzardo vs TBD) - 1:40 PM ET - COL @ MIN (Ryan Feltner vs Connor Prielipp) - 2:10 PM ET - KC @ CWS (Luinder Avila vs Anthony Kay) - 2:10 PM ET - CHC @ MIL (TBD vs Brandon Woodruff) - 2:10 PM ET - MIA @ STL (Tyler Phillips vs Kyle Leahy) - 2:15 PM ET - ATH @ LAA (Aaron Civale vs Sam Aldegheri) - 3:15 PM ET - ATL @ SF (Chris Sale vs Robbie Ray) - 4:05 PM ET - LAD @ SD (Emmet Sheehan vs Michael King) - 4:10 PM ET - NYY @ BOS (Carlos Rodón vs Sonny Gray) - 7:20 PM ET ## Pick 1: Yordan Alvarez — HOU vs Casey Mize (RHP) *Comerica Park · 25 HR · 18.6% barrel · 105.2 mph EV · 0.710 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.14* **Top play tonight.** The reason Yordan Alvarez jumps off the board: Casey Mize can be hit on his slider, which batters are slugging 0.467 against this season. 25% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Yordan Alvarez is going to see it. Alvarez squares the ball up at 18.6% — elite, top-of-league contact quality on the year. ## Pick 2: Byron Buxton — MIN vs Ryan Feltner (RHP) *Target Field · 25 HR · 19.1% barrel · 102.2 mph EV · 0.528 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.31* The reason Byron Buxton jumps off the board: Ryan Feltner can be hit on his 4-seam fastball, which batters are slugging 0.600 against this season. 26% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Byron Buxton is going to see it. Buxton squares the ball up at 19.1% — elite, top-of-league contact quality on the year. 2 HR in his last 7 games means the bat is on time, not just on paper. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Pick 3: Junior Caminero — TB vs Merrill Kelly (RHP) *Tropicana Field · 20 HR · 13.0% barrel · 105.8 mph EV · 0.490 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.50* Lock in on the matchup math: 15% of Merrill Kelly's pitches are his cutter, and hitters are punishing it (.848 SLG). Junior Caminero has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. Caminero's 13.0% barrel rate is barrel rate that ranks well above the league baseline. Recent form lines up: 5 bombs in his last 7 contests. Merrill Kelly averages just 91.8 mph on the heater — that's ML hitting practice for elite bats. ## Honorable Mentions - **Jac Caglianone** (KC) vs Anthony Kay — 5 HR in his last 7 games. - **Justin Foscue** (TEX) vs Shane Bieber — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Pete Alonso** (BAL) vs Zack Littell — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Zach Neto** (LAA) vs Aaron Civale — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Jarred Kelenic** (TEX) vs Shane Bieber — 22.2% barrel rate. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jun-28-2026) - no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*