# MLB Dinger Picks Today (June 27, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets > MLB HR picks for June 27, 2026 - Shohei Ohtani leads the board across 15 games. Statcast power metrics, matchup context, and hot streaks scored. **Date:** 2026-06-27 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jun-27-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Saturday, June 27, 2026** are Shohei Ohtani (Score: 64 — Shohei Ohtani rates a 64.0 dinger composite score against Randy Vásquez today), Byron Buxton (Score: 63 — Byron Buxton rates a 62.8 dinger composite score against Michael Lorenzen today), Dillon Dingler (Score: 61 — Dillon Dingler rates a 61.4 dinger composite score against Kai-Wei Teng today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 14-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today - June 27, 2026 283 batters, 15 games. Here's where the power and matchup line up for dingers tonight. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - live Per-pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - June 26](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jun-26-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - HOU @ DET (Kai-Wei Teng vs Framber Valdez) - 1:10 PM ET - NYY @ BOS (Gerrit Cole vs Jake Bennett) - 1:10 PM ET - TEX @ TOR (Kumar Rocker vs Dylan Cease) - 3:07 PM ET - CIN @ PIT (Chase Burns vs Jared Jones) - 4:05 PM ET - PHI @ NYM (Alan Rangel vs Christian Scott) - 4:10 PM ET - KC @ CWS (Michael Wacha vs Davis Martin) - 4:10 PM ET - AZ @ TB (Jose Cabrera vs Cole Sulser) - 6:10 PM ET - WSH @ BAL (Foster Griffin vs Brandon Young) - 7:05 PM ET - SEA @ CLE (Logan Gilbert vs Slade Cecconi) - 7:10 PM ET - COL @ MIN (Michael Lorenzen vs Mike Paredes) - 7:10 PM ET - CHC @ MIL (David Peterson vs Kyle Harrison) - 7:10 PM ET - MIA @ STL (Ryan Gusto vs Andre Pallante) - 7:15 PM ET - LAD @ SD (Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Randy Vásquez) - 8:40 PM ET - ATL @ SF (Bryce Elder vs Logan Webb) - 9:05 PM ET - ATH @ LAA (Jack Perkins vs Reid Detmers) - 9:38 PM ET ## Pick 1: Shohei Ohtani — LAD vs Randy Vásquez (RHP) *Petco Park · 17 HR · 17.5% barrel · 103.8 mph EV · 0.580 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.37* **Top play tonight.** The reason Shohei Ohtani jumps off the board: Randy Vásquez can be hit on his cutter, which batters are slugging 0.655 against this season. 23% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Shohei Ohtani is going to see it. A 17.5% barrel rate is the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry — that profile carries the lean. Recent form lines up: 3 bombs in his last 7 contests. ## Pick 2: Byron Buxton — MIN vs Michael Lorenzen (RHP) *Target Field · 25 HR · 19.0% barrel · 102.2 mph EV · 0.521 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.40* Byron Buxton's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Michael Lorenzen leans on a cutter 14% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .689 against it. Underneath the matchup is a 19.0% barrel rate, which is elite, top-of-league territory. Recent form lines up: 2 bombs in his last 7 contests. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Pick 3: Dillon Dingler — DET vs Kai-Wei Teng (RHP) *Comerica Park · 19 HR · 13.2% barrel · 101.9 mph EV · 0.559 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.63* Dillon Dingler's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Kai-Wei Teng leans on a 4-seam fastball 28% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .593 against it. A 13.2% barrel rate is barrel rate that puts him comfortably in the top quartile — that profile carries the lean. The recent stretch tells you the timing is right: 3 HR in 7 games. ## Honorable Mentions - **Yordan Alvarez** (HOU) vs Framber Valdez — 18.6% barrel rate. - **Jac Caglianone** (KC) vs Davis Martin — 6 HR in his last 7 games. - **Juan Soto** (NYM) vs Alan Rangel — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Pete Crow-Armstrong** (CHC) vs Kyle Harrison — 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **James Wood** (WSH) vs Brandon Young — 23.3% barrel rate. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jun-27-2026) - no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*