# MLB Dinger Picks Today (June 24, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets > Who hits a home run tonight? 16 games analyzed through barrel rate, xSLG, platoon splits, and pitcher HR/9 - Kyle Schwarber tops the dinger board. **Date:** 2026-06-24 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jun-24-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Wednesday, June 24, 2026** are Kyle Schwarber (Score: 72 — Kyle Schwarber rates a 72.2 dinger composite score against Miles Mikolas today), Yordan Alvarez (Score: 71 — Yordan Alvarez rates a 71.0 dinger composite score against Trey Yesavage today), James Wood (Score: 67 — James Wood rates a 67.3 dinger composite score against Aaron Nola today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 14-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today - June 24, 2026 278 power bats scored across 16 games. These are tonight's top dinger targets. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - live Per-pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - June 23](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jun-23-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - TEX @ MIA (Jacob deGrom vs TBD) - 12:10 PM ET - CHC @ NYM (TBD vs TBD) - 1:10 PM ET - CHC @ NYM (TBD vs TBD) - 7:10 PM ET - CLE @ CWS (Tanner Bibee vs Erick Fedde) - 2:10 PM ET - BOS @ COL (Ranger Suarez vs Kyle Freeland) - 3:10 PM ET - BAL @ LAA (Trey Gibson vs José Soriano) - 4:07 PM ET - SEA @ PIT (Bryan Woo vs Braxton Ashcraft) - 6:40 PM ET - KC @ TB (Noah Cameron vs Griffin Jax) - 6:40 PM ET - NYY @ DET (Ryan Weathers vs Tarik Skubal) - 6:40 PM ET - PHI @ WSH (Aaron Nola vs Miles Mikolas) - 6:45 PM ET - HOU @ TOR (Mike Burrows vs Trey Yesavage) - 7:07 PM ET - MIL @ CIN (Shane Drohan vs Rhett Lowder) - 7:10 PM ET - LAD @ MIN (Shohei Ohtani vs Joe Ryan) - 7:40 PM ET - AZ @ STL (TBD vs Matthew Liberatore) - 7:45 PM ET - ATL @ SD (Martín Pérez vs Randy Vásquez) - 8:40 PM ET - ATH @ SF (Gage Jump vs Tyler Mahle) - 9:45 PM ET ## Pick 1: Kyle Schwarber — PHI vs Miles Mikolas (RHP) *Nationals Park · 29 HR · 21.2% barrel · 104.1 mph EV · 0.545 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.95* **Top play tonight.** The reason Kyle Schwarber jumps off the board: Miles Mikolas can be hit on his sinker, which batters are slugging 0.500 against this season. 26% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Kyle Schwarber is going to see it. A 21.2% barrel rate is the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry — that profile carries the lean. 5 HR in his last 7 games means the bat is on time, not just on paper. ## Pick 2: Yordan Alvarez — HOU vs Trey Yesavage (RHP) *Rogers Centre · 25 HR · 18.9% barrel · 105.4 mph EV · 0.720 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.53* Lock in on the matchup math: 23% of Trey Yesavage's pitches are his slider, and hitters are punishing it (.476 SLG). Yordan Alvarez has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. A 18.9% barrel rate is the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry — that profile carries the lean. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Pick 3: James Wood — WSH vs Aaron Nola (RHP) *Nationals Park · 20 HR · 24.1% barrel · 106.6 mph EV · 0.619 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.06* The reason James Wood jumps off the board: Aaron Nola can be hit on his 4-seam fastball, which batters are slugging 0.828 against this season. 24% of his pitches are that one offering, which means James Wood is going to see it. Underneath the matchup is a 24.1% barrel rate, which is elite, top-of-league territory. Aaron Nola's 91.0 mph average fastball is the kind of velocity power bats wait for. ## Honorable Mentions - **Nick Kurtz** (ATH) vs Tyler Mahle — 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Jac Caglianone** (KC) vs Griffin Jax — 4 HR in his last 7 games. - **Colson Montgomery** (CWS) vs Tanner Bibee — 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Willson Contreras** (BOS) vs Kyle Freeland — 13.1% barrel rate. - **Kazuma Okamoto** (TOR) vs Mike Burrows — 2 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jun-24-2026) - no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*