# MLB Dinger Picks Today (June 22, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets > Data-driven MLB home run picks for today's 13-game slate. 14-factor Statcast model combines barrel rate, exit velocity, platoon matchups, pitcher vulnerability **Date:** 2026-06-22 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jun-22-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Monday, June 22, 2026** are Kyle Schwarber (Score: 72 — Kyle Schwarber rates a 72.3 dinger composite score against Foster Griffin today), Byron Buxton (Score: 71 — Byron Buxton rates a 70.6 dinger composite score against Eric Lauer today), Yordan Alvarez (Score: 66 — Yordan Alvarez rates a 65.8 dinger composite score against Dylan Cease today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 14-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today - June 22, 2026 Best HR plays from tonight's 13-game slate. 253 batters evaluated on barrel rate, pitcher matchup, and recent form. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - live Per-pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - June 21](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jun-21-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - NYY @ DET (Gerrit Cole vs Framber Valdez) - 6:10 PM ET - KC @ TB (Michael Wacha vs Drew Rasmussen) - 6:40 PM ET - TEX @ MIA (Tyler Alexander vs Tyler Phillips) - 6:40 PM ET - PHI @ WSH (TBD vs Foster Griffin) - 6:45 PM ET - HOU @ TOR (Hunter Brown vs Dylan Cease) - 7:07 PM ET - CHC @ NYM (Shota Imanaga vs Kodai Senga) - 7:10 PM ET - MIL @ CIN (Brandon Woodruff vs Brady Singer) - 7:10 PM ET - LAD @ MIN (Eric Lauer vs Zebby Matthews) - 7:40 PM ET - CLE @ CWS (Gavin Williams vs Anthony Kay) - 7:40 PM ET - AZ @ STL (Merrill Kelly vs Andre Pallante) - 7:45 PM ET - BOS @ COL (Jake Bennett vs Ryan Feltner) - 8:40 PM ET - BAL @ LAA (Kyle Bradish vs Sam Aldegheri) - 9:38 PM ET - ATL @ SD (Grant Holmes vs Michael King) - 10:10 PM ET ## Pick 1: Kyle Schwarber — PHI vs Foster Griffin (LHP) *Nationals Park · 28 HR · 21.1% barrel · 104.1 mph EV · 0.546 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.39* **Top play tonight.** Lock in on the matchup math: 31% of Foster Griffin's pitches are his cutter, and hitters are punishing it (.459 SLG). Kyle Schwarber has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. Schwarber squares the ball up at 21.1% — elite, top-of-league contact quality on the year. He is also trending the right way — 4 HR over his last 7 games. An 89.6 mph fastball gives Schwarber something to drive. ## Pick 2: Byron Buxton — MIN vs Eric Lauer (LHP) *Target Field · 24 HR · 18.9% barrel · 102.2 mph EV · 0.521 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.42* Lock in on the matchup math: 18% of Eric Lauer's pitches are his cutter, and hitters are punishing it (.625 SLG). Byron Buxton has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. Buxton squares the ball up at 18.9% — elite, top-of-league contact quality on the year. Recent form lines up: 3 bombs in his last 7 contests. An 89.7 mph fastball gives Buxton something to drive. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Pick 3: Yordan Alvarez — HOU vs Dylan Cease (RHP) *Rogers Centre · 24 HR · 18.8% barrel · 105.4 mph EV · 0.719 xSLG* Platoon math wins more dinger props than people realize. Yordan Alvarez slugs .644 against right-handers with 16 HR in that split — and tonight he gets Dylan Cease. Alvarez squares the ball up at 18.8% — elite, top-of-league contact quality on the year. ## Honorable Mentions - **Pete Crow-Armstrong** (CHC) vs Kodai Senga — 5 HR in his last 7 games. - **Shohei Ohtani** (LAD) vs Zebby Matthews — 4 HR in his last 7 games. - **Juan Soto** (NYM) vs Shota Imanaga — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Jackson Chourio** (MIL) vs Brady Singer — 4 HR in his last 7 games. - **Hunter Goodman** (COL) vs Jake Bennett — 3 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jun-22-2026) - no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*