# MLB Dinger Picks Today (June 21, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets > Dinger of the Day for June 21, 2026: 15-game slate scored across 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Yordan Alvarez leads tonight's HR picks. Updated daily. **Date:** 2026-06-21 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jun-21-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Sunday, June 21, 2026** are Yordan Alvarez (Score: 73 — Yordan Alvarez rates a 72.6 dinger composite score against Slade Cecconi today), James Wood (Score: 72 — James Wood rates a 71.5 dinger composite score against Nick Martinez today), Drake Baldwin (Score: 69 — Drake Baldwin rates a 68.6 dinger composite score against Robert Gasser today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 14-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today - June 21, 2026 15-game slate, 279 eligible bats. These Statcast profiles and matchups stand out. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - live Per-pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - June 20](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jun-20-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - CIN @ NYY (Chase Burns vs Elmer Rodríguez) - 1:35 PM ET - MIL @ ATL (Robert Gasser vs Bryce Elder) - 1:35 PM ET - WSH @ TB (Andrew Alvarez vs Nick Martinez) - 1:40 PM ET - CWS @ DET (Davis Martin vs Keider Montero) - 1:40 PM ET - SF @ MIA (Logan Webb vs Ryan Gusto) - 1:40 PM ET - CLE @ HOU (Slade Cecconi vs Kai-Wei Teng) - 2:10 PM ET - STL @ KC (Dustin May vs Stephen Kolek) - 2:10 PM ET - TOR @ CHC (Dylan Cease vs Shota Imanaga) - 2:20 PM ET - SD @ TEX (Lucas Giolito vs Nathan Eovaldi) - 2:35 PM ET - PIT @ COL (Jared Jones vs Michael Lorenzen) - 3:10 PM ET - MIN @ AZ (Mike Paredes vs Jose Cabrera) - 3:15 PM ET - LAA @ ATH (Reid Detmers vs Jack Perkins) - 4:05 PM ET - BAL @ LAD (Brandon Young vs Emmet Sheehan) - 4:10 PM ET - BOS @ SEA (Payton Tolle vs Logan Gilbert) - 4:10 PM ET - NYM @ PHI (David Peterson vs Zack Wheeler) - 7:20 PM ET ## Pick 1: Yordan Alvarez — HOU vs Slade Cecconi (RHP) *Daikin Park · 24 HR · 18.6% barrel · 105.4 mph EV · 0.721 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.20* **Top play tonight.** Slade Cecconi throws his 4-seam fastball 31% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.474 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Yordan Alvarez should be sitting on. Underneath the matchup is a 18.6% barrel rate, which is elite, top-of-league territory. Recent form lines up: 2 bombs in his last 7 contests. Slade Cecconi's 91.4 mph average fastball is the kind of velocity power bats wait for. ## Pick 2: James Wood — WSH vs Nick Martinez (RHP) *Tropicana Field · 20 HR · 24.2% barrel · 106.6 mph EV · 0.626 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.13* Lock in on the matchup math: 11% of Nick Martinez's pitches are his 4-seam fastball, and hitters are punishing it (.606 SLG). James Wood has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. A 24.2% barrel rate is the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry — that profile carries the lean. He is also trending the right way — 2 HR over his last 7 games. Nick Martinez's 91.6 mph average fastball is the kind of velocity power bats wait for. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Pick 3: Drake Baldwin — ATL vs Robert Gasser (LHP) *Truist Park · 14 HR · 18.4% barrel · 103.6 mph EV · 0.570 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.53* Lock in on the matchup math: 27% of Robert Gasser's pitches are his sinker, and hitters are punishing it (.545 SLG). Drake Baldwin has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. His 18.4% barrel rate (elite, top-of-league) backs the take. Recent form lines up: 3 bombs in his last 7 contests. ## Honorable Mentions - **Hunter Goodman** (COL) vs Jared Jones — 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Matt Olson** (ATL) vs Robert Gasser — 14.3% barrel rate. - **Jackson Chourio** (MIL) vs Bryce Elder — 4 HR in his last 7 games. - **Juan Soto** (NYM) vs Zack Wheeler — 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Jose Siri** (LAA) vs Jack Perkins — 2 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jun-21-2026) - no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*