# MLB Dinger Picks Today (June 20, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets > Who hits a home run tonight? 14 games analyzed through barrel rate, xSLG, platoon splits, and pitcher HR/9 - Yordan Alvarez tops the dinger board. **Date:** 2026-06-20 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jun-20-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Saturday, June 20, 2026** are Yordan Alvarez (Score: 75 — Yordan Alvarez rates a 75.3 dinger composite score against Joey Cantillo today), Byron Buxton (Score: 68 — Byron Buxton rates a 67.8 dinger composite score against Zac Gallen today), Drake Baldwin (Score: 67 — Drake Baldwin rates a 66.6 dinger composite score against Kyle Harrison today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 14-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today - June 20, 2026 265 power bats scored across 14 games. These are tonight's top dinger targets. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - live Per-pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - June 19](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jun-19-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - CWS @ DET (TBD vs Troy Melton) - 1:10 PM ET - CIN @ NYY (Andrew Abbott vs Will Warren) - 1:35 PM ET - TOR @ CHC (Patrick Corbin vs Colin Rea) - 2:20 PM ET - SD @ TEX (Walker Buehler vs Nathan Eovaldi) - 4:05 PM ET - WSH @ TB (Cade Cavalli vs Ian Seymour) - 4:10 PM ET - SF @ MIA (Trevor McDonald vs Max Meyer) - 4:10 PM ET - MIL @ ATL (Kyle Harrison vs Chris Sale) - 4:10 PM ET - CLE @ HOU (Joey Cantillo vs Spencer Arrighetti) - 7:15 PM ET - NYM @ PHI (Freddy Peralta vs Cristopher Sánchez) - 7:15 PM ET - PIT @ COL (Paul Skenes vs Tomoyuki Sugano) - 9:10 PM ET - LAA @ ATH (Walbert Ureña vs J.T. Ginn) - 10:05 PM ET - BAL @ LAD (Trevor Rogers vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto) - 10:10 PM ET - BOS @ SEA (Connelly Early vs Emerson Hancock) - 10:10 PM ET - MIN @ AZ (Taj Bradley vs Zac Gallen) - 10:10 PM ET ## Pick 1: Yordan Alvarez — HOU vs Joey Cantillo (LHP) *Daikin Park · 24 HR · 18.7% barrel · 105.5 mph EV · 0.728 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.85* **Top play tonight.** The reason Yordan Alvarez jumps off the board: Joey Cantillo can be hit on his 4-seam fastball, which batters are slugging 0.580 against this season. 40% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Yordan Alvarez is going to see it. The barrel rate (18.7%) is in the elite, top-of-league tier — that is a real edge, not a small-sample mirage. He is also trending the right way — 2 HR over his last 7 games. Joey Cantillo averages just 91.5 mph on the heater — that's ML hitting practice for elite bats. ## Pick 2: Byron Buxton — MIN vs Zac Gallen (RHP) *Chase Field · 23 HR · 18.5% barrel · 102.3 mph EV · 0.510 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.96* The reason Byron Buxton jumps off the board: Zac Gallen can be hit on his slider, which batters are slugging 0.526 against this season. 23% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Byron Buxton is going to see it. The barrel rate (18.5%) is in the elite, top-of-league tier — that is a real edge, not a small-sample mirage. The recent stretch tells you the timing is right: 3 HR in 7 games. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Pick 3: Drake Baldwin — ATL vs Kyle Harrison (LHP) *Truist Park · 14 HR · 18.7% barrel · 103.7 mph EV · 0.580 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.66* Drake Baldwin draws Kyle Harrison, who has been hemorrhaging long balls (1.66 HR/9). Even a single mistake usually leaves the yard against Drake Baldwin's 18.7% barrel rate. 3 HR in his last 7 games means the bat is on time, not just on paper. ## Honorable Mentions - **Shohei Ohtani** (LAD) vs Trevor Rogers — 4 HR in his last 7 games. - **Endy Rodríguez** (PIT) vs Tomoyuki Sugano — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Brandon Lowe** (PIT) vs Tomoyuki Sugano — 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Matt Olson** (ATL) vs Kyle Harrison — 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Colson Montgomery** (CWS) vs Troy Melton — 4 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jun-20-2026) - no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*