# MLB Dinger Picks Today (June 14, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets > Dinger of the Day for June 14, 2026: 15-game slate scored across 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Yordan Alvarez leads tonight's HR picks. Updated daily. **Date:** 2026-06-14 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jun-14-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Sunday, June 14, 2026** are Yordan Alvarez (Score: 68 — Yordan Alvarez rates a 68.0 dinger composite score against Stephen Kolek today), Kyle Schwarber (Score: 67 — Kyle Schwarber rates a 66.7 dinger composite score against Kyle Harrison today), Nick Kurtz (Score: 67 — Nick Kurtz rates a 66.7 dinger composite score against Tomoyuki Sugano today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 14-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today - June 14, 2026 Every qualified bat scored across 14 factors. 294 candidates, 15 games - here are the plays. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - live Per-pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - June 13](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jun-13-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - MIA @ PIT (Max Meyer vs Paul Skenes) - 12:15 PM ET - SD @ BAL (Walker Buehler vs Trevor Rogers) - 1:35 PM ET - SEA @ WSH (Emerson Hancock vs Miles Mikolas) - 1:35 PM ET - NYY @ TOR (Will Warren vs Patrick Corbin) - 1:37 PM ET - AZ @ CIN (Zac Gallen vs Andrew Abbott) - 1:40 PM ET - DET @ CLE (Casey Mize vs Gavin Williams) - 1:40 PM ET - ATL @ NYM (Bryce Elder vs Freddy Peralta) - 1:40 PM ET - HOU @ KC (Spencer Arrighetti vs Stephen Kolek) - 2:10 PM ET - STL @ MIN (Michael McGreevy vs Taj Bradley) - 2:10 PM ET - LAD @ CWS (Emmet Sheehan vs Erick Fedde) - 2:10 PM ET - PHI @ MIL (Cristopher Sánchez vs Kyle Harrison) - 2:10 PM ET - COL @ ATH (Tomoyuki Sugano vs Jeffrey Springs) - 3:05 PM ET - CHC @ SF (Ryan Rolison vs Logan Webb) - 3:10 PM ET - TB @ LAA (TBD vs Grayson Rodriguez) - 4:07 PM ET - TEX @ BOS (Nathan Eovaldi vs Connelly Early) - 7:20 PM ET ## Pick 1: Yordan Alvarez — HOU vs Stephen Kolek (RHP) *Kauffman Stadium · 22 HR · 18.6% barrel · 105.9 mph EV · 0.729 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.90* **Top play tonight.** Stephen Kolek throws his cutter 11% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.563 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Yordan Alvarez should be sitting on. Alvarez's 18.6% barrel rate is barrel rate that screams "elite contact quality" — top decile across MLB. Alvarez has been swinging at peak — 3 long balls in his last 7 games. ## Pick 2: Kyle Schwarber — PHI vs Kyle Harrison (LHP) *American Family Field · 24 HR · 21.9% barrel · 103.8 mph EV · 0.530 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.72* Kyle Schwarber's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Kyle Harrison leans on a changeup 10% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .600 against it. Schwarber's 21.9% barrel rate is barrel rate that screams "elite contact quality" — top decile across MLB. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Pick 3: Nick Kurtz — ATH vs Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP) *Las Vegas Ballpark · 15 HR · 18.5% barrel · 106.1 mph EV · 0.513 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.71* Nick Kurtz's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Tomoyuki Sugano leans on a cutter 11% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .774 against it. Kurtz squares the ball up at 18.5% — elite, top-of-league contact quality on the year. Kurtz is on a serious heater right now — 5 HR in 7 games is well past his baseline. An 91.5 mph fastball gives Kurtz something to drive. ## Honorable Mentions - **James Wood** (WSH) vs Emerson Hancock — 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Byron Buxton** (MIN) vs Michael McGreevy — 4 HR in his last 7 games. - **Dominic Canzone** (SEA) vs Miles Mikolas — 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Shohei Ohtani** (LAD) vs Erick Fedde — 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Hunter Goodman** (COL) vs Jeffrey Springs — 3 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jun-14-2026) - no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*