# MLB Dinger Picks Today (June 13, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets > Who hits a home run tonight? 15 games analyzed through barrel rate, xSLG, platoon splits, and pitcher HR/9 - Shea Langeliers tops the dinger board. **Date:** 2026-06-13 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jun-13-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Saturday, June 13, 2026** are Shea Langeliers (Score: 69 — Shea Langeliers rates a 69.1 dinger composite score against Kyle Freeland today), Yordan Alvarez (Score: 67 — Yordan Alvarez rates a 67.3 dinger composite score against Noah Cameron today), Nick Kurtz (Score: 67 — Nick Kurtz rates a 67.1 dinger composite score against Kyle Freeland today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 14-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today - June 13, 2026 15 games on the board. These bats have the Statcast profiles and matchups to go deep. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - live Per-pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - June 12](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jun-12-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - STL @ MIN (Matthew Liberatore vs Connor Prielipp) - 2:10 PM ET - NYY @ TOR (Cam Schlittler vs Kevin Gausman) - 3:07 PM ET - SD @ BAL (Randy Vásquez vs Trey Gibson) - 4:05 PM ET - SEA @ WSH (Luis Castillo vs Cade Cavalli) - 4:05 PM ET - MIA @ PIT (TBD vs Bubba Chandler) - 4:05 PM ET - AZ @ CIN (Michael Soroka vs Rhett Lowder) - 4:10 PM ET - DET @ CLE (Tarik Skubal vs Joey Cantillo) - 4:10 PM ET - TEX @ BOS (Jacob deGrom vs Ranger Suarez) - 4:10 PM ET - ATL @ NYM (Martín Pérez vs Sean Manaea) - 4:10 PM ET - LAD @ CWS (Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Sean Burke) - 4:10 PM ET - HOU @ KC (Mike Burrows vs Noah Cameron) - 7:10 PM ET - PHI @ MIL (Aaron Nola vs Shane Drohan) - 7:10 PM ET - COL @ ATH (Kyle Freeland vs Joey Estes) - 10:05 PM ET - CHC @ SF (Ben Brown vs Trevor McDonald) - 10:05 PM ET - TB @ LAA (Griffin Jax vs José Soriano) - 10:07 PM ET ## Pick 1: Shea Langeliers — ATH vs Kyle Freeland (LHP) *Las Vegas Ballpark · 17 HR · 14.8% barrel · 102.9 mph EV · 0.539 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.34* **Top play tonight.** Kyle Freeland throws his 4-seam fastball 28% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.821 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Shea Langeliers should be sitting on. Underneath the matchup is a 14.8% barrel rate, which is elite, top-of-league territory. He is also trending the right way — 3 HR over his last 7 games. Kyle Freeland's 89.7 mph average fastball is the kind of velocity power bats wait for. ## Pick 2: Yordan Alvarez — HOU vs Noah Cameron (LHP) *Kauffman Stadium · 22 HR · 18.6% barrel · 105.9 mph EV · 0.729 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.65* Lock in on the matchup math: 11% of Noah Cameron's pitches are his slider, and hitters are punishing it (.563 SLG). Yordan Alvarez has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. Alvarez squares the ball up at 18.6% — elite, top-of-league contact quality on the year. An 91.2 mph fastball gives Alvarez something to drive. That said — Noah Cameron's 0.65 HR/9 is genuinely good. Treat this as a power play more than a matchup play. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Pick 3: Nick Kurtz — ATH vs Kyle Freeland (LHP) *Las Vegas Ballpark · 15 HR · 18.5% barrel · 106.1 mph EV · 0.513 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.34* Lock in on the matchup math: 28% of Kyle Freeland's pitches are his 4-seam fastball, and hitters are punishing it (.821 SLG). Nick Kurtz has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. Underneath the matchup is a 18.5% barrel rate, which is elite, top-of-league territory. Recent form lines up: 4 bombs in his last 7 contests. An 89.7 mph fastball gives Kurtz something to drive. ## Honorable Mentions - **James Wood** (WSH) vs Luis Castillo — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Dillon Dingler** (DET) vs Joey Cantillo — 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Hunter Goodman** (COL) vs Joey Estes — 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Kyle Schwarber** (PHI) vs Shane Drohan — 21.9% barrel rate. - **Jackson Chourio** (MIL) vs Aaron Nola — 4 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jun-13-2026) - no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*