# MLB Dinger Picks Today (June 11, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets > Data-driven MLB home run picks for today's 8-game slate. 14-factor Statcast model combines barrel rate, exit velocity, platoon matchups, pitcher vulnerability **Date:** 2026-06-11 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jun-11-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Thursday, June 11, 2026** are Hunter Goodman (Score: 68 — Hunter Goodman rates a 67.6 dinger composite score against Edward Cabrera today), Dillon Dingler (Score: 67 — Dillon Dingler rates a 67.4 dinger composite score against Zebby Matthews today), Randal Grichuk (Score: 66 — Randal Grichuk rates a 66.0 dinger composite score against Martín Pérez today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 14-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today - June 11, 2026 Best HR plays from tonight's 8-game slate. 158 batters evaluated on barrel rate, pitcher matchup, and recent form. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - live Per-pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - June 10](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jun-10-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - STL @ NYM (Hunter Dobbins vs Christian Scott) - 1:10 PM ET - MIN @ DET (Zebby Matthews vs Keider Montero) - 1:10 PM ET - AZ @ MIA (Merrill Kelly vs Tyler Phillips) - 1:10 PM ET - TEX @ KC (Kumar Rocker vs Michael Wacha) - 2:10 PM ET - CHC @ COL (Edward Cabrera vs Ryan Feltner) - 3:10 PM ET - LAD @ PIT (Justin Wrobleski vs Mitch Keller) - 6:40 PM ET - SEA @ BAL (Bryan Woo vs Kyle Bradish) - 7:05 PM ET - ATL @ CWS (Martín Pérez vs TBD) - 7:40 PM ET ## Pick 1: Hunter Goodman — COL vs Edward Cabrera (RHP) *Coors Field · 18 HR · 15.9% barrel · 102.9 mph EV · 0.452 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.78* **Top play tonight.** Hunter Goodman's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Edward Cabrera leans on a 4-seam fastball 17% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .633 against it. Underneath the matchup is a 15.9% barrel rate, which is elite, top-of-league territory. 5 HR in his last 7 games means the bat is on time, not just on paper. 5,200 ft of elevation in Denver tacks on extra distance to anything in the air. ## Pick 2: Dillon Dingler — DET vs Zebby Matthews (RHP) *Comerica Park · 16 HR · 13.5% barrel · 101.8 mph EV · 0.577 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.74* Zebby Matthews throws his changeup 16% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.467 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Dillon Dingler should be sitting on. Dingler's 13.5% barrel rate is barrel rate that ranks well above the league baseline. Dingler has been swinging at peak — 5 long balls in his last 7 games. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Pick 3: Randal Grichuk — CWS vs Martín Pérez (LHP) *Rate Field · 6 HR · 13.6% barrel · 101.5 mph EV · 0.561 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.81* Lock in on the matchup math: 22% of Martín Pérez's pitches are his cutter, and hitters are punishing it (.531 SLG). Randal Grichuk has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. His 13.6% barrel rate (above average) backs the take. 2 HR in his last 7 games means the bat is on time, not just on paper. An 88.4 mph fastball gives Grichuk something to drive. ## Honorable Mentions - **Byron Buxton** (MIN) vs Keider Montero — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Miguel Vargas** (CWS) vs Martín Pérez — 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Max Muncy** (LAD) vs Mitch Keller — 17.4% barrel rate. - **Pete Crow-Armstrong** (CHC) vs Ryan Feltner — 4 HR in his last 7 games. - **Shohei Ohtani** (LAD) vs Mitch Keller — 15.0% barrel rate. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jun-11-2026) - no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*