# MLB Dinger Picks Today (July 9, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Data driven MLB home run picks for today's slate (13 games). A 14 factor Statcast model combines barrel rate, exit velocity, platoon matchups, pitcher vulnerabi **Date:** 2026-07-09 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jul-9-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Thursday, July 9, 2026** are Kyle Schwarber (Score: 70, Kyle Schwarber rates a 69.6 dinger composite score against Brady Singer today), Matt Olson (Score: 63, Matt Olson rates a 63.2 dinger composite score against Mitch Keller today), Juan Soto (Score: 63, Juan Soto rates a 62.9 dinger composite score against Michael Wacha today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: July 9, 2026 Best HR plays from tonight's 13 games. 263 batters evaluated on barrel rate, pitcher matchup, and recent form. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for July 8](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jul-8-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - ATL at PIT (Bryce Elder vs Mitch Keller), 12:35 PM ET - KC at NYM (Michael Wacha vs Sean Manaea), 1:10 PM ET - NYY at TB (TBD vs Drew Rasmussen), 1:10 PM ET - CLE at MIN (Gavin Williams vs Mike Paredes), 1:40 PM ET - BOS at CWS (Patrick Sandoval vs Anthony Kay), 2:10 PM ET - CHC at BAL (David Peterson vs Trevor Rogers), 6:35 PM ET - ATH at DET (Jack Perkins vs Framber Valdez), 6:40 PM ET - SEA at MIA (Bryce Miller vs TBD), 6:40 PM ET - PHI at CIN (Jesús Luzardo vs Brady Singer), 7:10 PM ET - MIL at STL (TBD vs Andre Pallante), 7:45 PM ET - LAA at TEX (Reid Detmers vs Nathan Eovaldi), 8:05 PM ET - AZ at SD (Merrill Kelly vs Griffin Canning), 9:40 PM ET - COL at SF (Ryan Feltner vs Robbie Ray), 9:45 PM ET ## Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies vs Brady Singer (RHP) *Great American Ball Park · 31 HR · 19.5% barrel · 104.4 mph EV · 0.530 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.99* **Top play tonight.** Lock in on the matchup math: 13% of Brady Singer's pitches are his sweeper, and hitters are punishing it (.595 SLG). Kyle Schwarber has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. Schwarber squares the ball up at 19.5%, elite, top of the league contact quality on the year. An 90.7 mph fastball gives Schwarber something to drive. I am backing Schwarber to clear the fences. ## Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves vs Mitch Keller (RHP) *PNC Park · 24 HR · 14.1% barrel · 104.1 mph EV · 0.523 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.65* Matt Olson's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Mitch Keller leans on a sweeper 17% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .475 against it. At 14.1%, Olson carries barrel rate that screams "elite contact quality", top decile across MLB. Recent form lines up: 4 bombs in his last 7 contests. Olson to go deep is the play tonight. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Juan Soto, New York Mets vs Michael Wacha (RHP) *Citi Field · 20 HR · 14.9% barrel · 102.7 mph EV · 0.614 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.15* The reason Juan Soto jumps off the board: Michael Wacha can be hit on his cutter, which batters are slugging 0.589 against this season. 16% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Juan Soto is going to see it. Underneath the matchup is a 14.9% barrel rate, which is elite, top of the league territory. Recent form lines up: 3 bombs in his last 7 contests. Michael Wacha's 92.1 mph average fastball is the kind of velocity power bats wait for. Soto to go deep is the play tonight. ## Honorable Mentions - **Esmerlyn Valdez** (PIT) vs Bryce Elder: 26.1% barrel rate. - **Hunter Goodman** (COL) vs Robbie Ray: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Willson Contreras** (BOS) vs Anthony Kay: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Justin Foscue** (TEX) vs Reid Detmers: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Bryce Harper** (PHI) vs Brady Singer: 12.0% barrel rate. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jul-9-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*