# MLB Dinger Picks Today (July 7, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Who hits a home run tonight? 16 games analyzed through barrel rate, xSLG, platoon splits, and pitcher HR/9, with James Wood on top of the dinger board. **Date:** 2026-07-07 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jul-7-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Tuesday, July 7, 2026** are James Wood (Score: 73, James Wood rates a 72.7 dinger composite score against Tatsuya Imai today), Yordan Alvarez (Score: 70, Yordan Alvarez rates a 69.6 dinger composite score against Andrew Alvarez today), Kyle Schwarber (Score: 68, Kyle Schwarber rates a 68.1 dinger composite score against Andrew Abbott today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: July 7, 2026 16 games on the board. These bats have the Statcast profiles and matchups to go deep. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for July 6](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jul-6-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - MIL at STL (Jacob Misiorowski vs Michael McGreevy), 7:45 PM ET - CHC at BAL (Matthew Boyd vs Shane Baz), 6:35 PM ET - ATH at DET (J.T. Ginn vs Tarik Skubal), 6:40 PM ET - ATL at PIT (TBD vs Paul Skenes), 6:40 PM ET - SEA at MIA (TBD vs Max Meyer), 6:40 PM ET - NYY at TB (Will Warren vs Shane McClanahan), 6:40 PM ET - HOU at WSH (Tatsuya Imai vs Andrew Alvarez), 6:45 PM ET - KC at NYM (Seth Lugo vs TBD), 7:10 PM ET - PHI at CIN (Zack Wheeler vs Andrew Abbott), 7:10 PM ET - CLE at MIN (Joey Cantillo vs Taj Bradley), 7:40 PM ET - BOS at CWS (Payton Tolle vs Noah Schultz), 7:40 PM ET - LAA at TEX (José Soriano vs Jacob deGrom), 8:05 PM ET - AZ at SD (Zac Gallen vs TBD), 9:40 PM ET - TOR at SF (TBD vs Trevor McDonald), 9:45 PM ET - COL at LAD (Michael Lorenzen vs Justin Wrobleski), 10:10 PM ET ## James Wood, Washington Nationals vs Tatsuya Imai (RHP) *Nationals Park · 23 HR · 22.6% barrel · 106.3 mph EV · 0.603 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.72* **Top play tonight.** Tatsuya Imai throws his 4-seam fastball 45% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.452 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch James Wood should be sitting on. His 22.6% barrel rate (elite, top of the league) backs the take. He is also trending the right way, 3 HR over his last 7 games. Wood to go deep is the play tonight. ## Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Andrew Alvarez (LHP) *Nationals Park · 29 HR · 19.3% barrel · 105.4 mph EV · 0.718 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.26* Lock in on the matchup math: 27% of Andrew Alvarez's pitches are his slider, and hitters are punishing it (.556 SLG). Yordan Alvarez has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. The barrel rate (19.3%) is in the elite, top of the league tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. Recent form lines up: 4 bombs in his last 7 contests. That said, Andrew Alvarez's 0.26 HR/9 is genuinely good. Treat this as a power play more than a matchup play. Take Alvarez to leave the yard tonight. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies vs Andrew Abbott (LHP) *Great American Ball Park · 30 HR · 19.3% barrel · 104.4 mph EV · 0.531 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.80* Kyle Schwarber's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Andrew Abbott leans on a 4-seam fastball 47% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .455 against it. Underneath the matchup is a 19.3% barrel rate, which is elite, top of the league territory. Take Schwarber to leave the yard tonight. ## Honorable Mentions - **Miguel Vargas** (CWS) vs Payton Tolle: 15.1% barrel rate. - **Willson Contreras** (BOS) vs Noah Schultz: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Hunter Goodman** (COL) vs Justin Wrobleski: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Colson Montgomery** (CWS) vs Payton Tolle: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Junior Caminero** (TB) vs Will Warren: 5 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jul-7-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*