# MLB Dinger Picks Today (July 5, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Data driven MLB home run picks for today's slate (15 games). A 14 factor Statcast model combines barrel rate, exit velocity, platoon matchups, pitcher vulnerabi **Date:** 2026-07-05 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jul-5-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Sunday, July 5, 2026** are Yordan Alvarez (Score: 70, Yordan Alvarez rates a 70.3 dinger composite score against Griffin Jax today), Esmerlyn Valdez (Score: 70, Esmerlyn Valdez rates a 70.0 dinger composite score against Miles Mikolas today), Hunter Goodman (Score: 65, Hunter Goodman rates a 65.2 dinger composite score against Tyler Mahle today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: July 5, 2026 338 power bats scored across 15 games. These are tonight's top dinger targets. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for July 4](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jul-4-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - NYM at ATL (Nolan McLean vs Martín Pérez), 12:30 PM ET - PIT at WSH (Bubba Chandler vs Miles Mikolas), 1:00 PM ET - BAL at CIN (Kyle Bradish vs Nick Lodolo), 1:05 PM ET - MIN at NYY (Joe Ryan vs Ryan Weathers), 1:35 PM ET - CWS at CLE (Erick Fedde vs Tanner Bibee), 2:00 PM ET - STL at CHC (Matthew Liberatore vs Javier Assad), 2:30 PM ET - PHI at KC (Aaron Nola vs Luinder Avila), 3:00 PM ET - TB at HOU (Griffin Jax vs Peter Lambert), 3:30 PM ET - DET at TEX (Casey Mize vs Cal Quantrill), 3:30 PM ET - SF at COL (Tyler Mahle vs Tanner Gordon), 4:00 PM ET - MIL at AZ (Brandon Sproat vs Eduardo Rodriguez), 4:00 PM ET - MIA at ATH (Eury Pérez vs Gage Jump), 4:30 PM ET - TOR at SEA (Trey Yesavage vs George Kirby), 5:00 PM ET - SD at LAD (JP Sears vs Emmet Sheehan), 7:20 PM ET - BOS at LAA (Ranger Suarez vs Ryan Johnson), 9:30 PM ET ## Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Griffin Jax (RHP) *Daikin Park · 26 HR · 19.0% barrel · 105.4 mph EV · 0.707 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.67* **Top play tonight.** Lock in on the matchup math: 17% of Griffin Jax's pitches are his 4-seam fastball, and hitters are punishing it (.722 SLG). Yordan Alvarez has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. Alvarez sits at 19.0%, the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry, and that profile carries the lean. The recent stretch tells you the timing is right: 2 HR in 7 games. I am backing Alvarez to clear the fences. ## Esmerlyn Valdez, Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miles Mikolas (RHP) *Nationals Park · 6 HR · 29.7% barrel · 104.8 mph EV · 0.626 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.18* Miles Mikolas throws his sinker 25% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.486 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Esmerlyn Valdez should be sitting on. Underneath the matchup is a 29.7% barrel rate, which is elite, top of the league territory. 3 HR in his last 7 games means the bat is on time, not just on paper. Valdez is my HR lean in this spot. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Hunter Goodman, Colorado Rockies vs Tyler Mahle (RHP) *Coors Field · 27 HR · 17.3% barrel · 103.2 mph EV · 0.476 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.37* Lock in on the matchup math: 11% of Tyler Mahle's pitches are his slider, and hitters are punishing it (.594 SLG). Hunter Goodman has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. At 17.3%, Goodman carries barrel rate that screams "elite contact quality", top decile across MLB. Goodman has been swinging at peak, 6 long balls in his last 7 games. Tyler Mahle averages just 91.4 mph on the heater, that's ML hitting practice for elite bats. Coors elevation does the rest, 5,200 feet of thin air adds carry. Goodman is my HR lean in this spot. ## Honorable Mentions - **Mickey Moniak** (COL) vs Tyler Mahle: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Nick Kurtz** (ATH) vs Eury Pérez: 18.7% barrel rate. - **James Wood** (WSH) vs Bubba Chandler: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Rafael Devers** (SF) vs Tanner Gordon: 4 HR in his last 7 games. - **Ben Rice** (NYY) vs Joe Ryan: 2 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jul-5-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*