# MLB Dinger Picks Today (July 31, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > MLB HR picks for July 31, 2026. Yordan Alvarez leads the board across 15 games. Statcast power metrics, matchup context, and hot streaks scored. **Date:** 2026-07-31 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jul-31-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Friday, July 31, 2026** are Yordan Alvarez (Score: 69, Yordan Alvarez rates a 68.9 dinger composite score against Nathan Eovaldi today), James Wood (Score: 66, James Wood rates a 66.4 dinger composite score against Bryce Elder today), Esmerlyn Valdez (Score: 65, Esmerlyn Valdez rates a 65.1 dinger composite score against Hunter Greene today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: July 31, 2026 A slate of 15 games and 321 eligible bats. These Statcast profiles and matchups stand out. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for July 30](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jul-30-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - NYY at CHC (Will Warren vs Shota Imanaga), 2:20 PM ET - PIT at CIN (Paul Skenes vs Hunter Greene), 6:10 PM ET - PHI at BAL (TBD vs Brandon Young), 7:05 PM ET - STL at TOR (Kyle Leahy vs Dylan Cease), 7:07 PM ET - AZ at CLE (Mitch Bratt vs Tanner Bibee), 7:10 PM ET - CWS at TB (TBD vs Nick Martinez), 7:10 PM ET - MIA at NYM (Janson Junk vs Freddy Peralta), 7:10 PM ET - WSH at ATL (Foster Griffin vs Bryce Elder), 7:15 PM ET - TEX at HOU (Nathan Eovaldi vs Hunter Brown), 8:15 PM ET - KC at COL (Michael Wacha vs Tomoyuki Sugano), 8:40 PM ET - MIL at LAA (Shane Drohan vs Ryan Johnson), 9:38 PM ET - DET at ATH (Casey Mize vs Jeffrey Springs), 9:40 PM ET - SF at SD (Carson Whisenhunt vs TBD), 9:45 PM ET - BOS at LAD (Ranger Suarez vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto), 10:10 PM ET - MIN at SEA (Zebby Matthews vs Bryce Miller), 10:10 PM ET ## Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Nathan Eovaldi (RHP) *Daikin Park · 35 HR · 18.8% barrel · 105.4 mph EV · 0.718 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.61* **Top play tonight.** Yordan Alvarez's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Nathan Eovaldi leans on a 4-seam fastball 14% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .738 against it. At 18.8%, Alvarez carries barrel rate that screams "elite contact quality", top decile across MLB. Alvarez has been swinging at peak, 2 long balls in his last 7 games. Nathan Eovaldi averages just 92.4 mph on the heater, that's ML hitting practice for elite bats. Alvarez is my HR lean in this spot. ## James Wood, Washington Nationals vs Bryce Elder (RHP) *Truist Park · 30 HR · 21.8% barrel · 106.3 mph EV · 0.598 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.30* The reason James Wood jumps off the board: Bryce Elder can be hit on his slider, which batters are slugging 0.465 against this season. 26% of his pitches are that one offering, which means James Wood is going to see it. Wood squares the ball up at 21.8%, elite, top of the league contact quality on the year. Wood has been swinging at peak, 2 long balls in his last 7 games. An 91.1 mph fastball gives Wood something to drive. I am backing Wood to clear the fences. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Esmerlyn Valdez, Pittsburgh Pirates vs Hunter Greene (RHP) *Great American Ball Park · 14 HR · 28.0% barrel · 104.4 mph EV · 0.548 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.16* Esmerlyn Valdez's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Hunter Greene leans on a slider 33% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .556 against it. The barrel rate (28.0%) is in the elite, top of the league tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. Take Valdez to leave the yard tonight. ## Honorable Mentions - **Hunter Goodman** (COL) vs Michael Wacha: 17.1% barrel rate. - **Munetaka Murakami** (CWS) vs Nick Martinez: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Jac Caglianone** (KC) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 14.9% barrel rate. - **Pete Crow-Armstrong** (CHC) vs Will Warren: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **CJ Abrams** (WSH) vs Bryce Elder: 3 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jul-31-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*