# MLB Dinger Picks Today (July 27, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Data driven MLB home run picks for today's slate (12 games). A 14 factor Statcast model combines barrel rate, exit velocity, platoon matchups, pitcher vulnerabi **Date:** 2026-07-27 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jul-27-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Monday, July 27, 2026** are Yordan Alvarez (Score: 70, Yordan Alvarez rates a 70.2 dinger composite score against Walbert Ureña today), Munetaka Murakami (Score: 65, Munetaka Murakami rates a 64.9 dinger composite score against Max Fried today), Ben Rice (Score: 64, Ben Rice rates a 63.5 dinger composite score against Noah Schultz today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: July 27, 2026 258 power bats scored across 12 games. These are tonight's top dinger targets. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for July 26](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jul-26-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - SEA at TEX (George Kirby vs Kumar Rocker), 2:35 PM ET - BAL at DET (Kyle Bradish vs Keider Montero), 6:40 PM ET - AZ at PIT (TBD vs Bubba Chandler), 6:40 PM ET - PHI at MIA (Zack Wheeler vs Tyler Phillips), 6:40 PM ET - TOR at WSH (TBD vs Andrew Alvarez), 6:45 PM ET - CLE at CIN (Slade Cecconi vs Chase Burns), 7:10 PM ET - ATL at NYM (Martín Pérez vs Zac Thornton), 7:10 PM ET - NYY at CWS (Max Fried vs Noah Schultz), 7:40 PM ET - CHC at STL (David Peterson vs Matthew Liberatore), 7:45 PM ET - HOU at LAA (Tatsuya Imai vs Walbert Ureña), 9:38 PM ET - BOS at ATH (Payton Tolle vs Jack Perkins), 9:40 PM ET - MIL at SF (Brandon Sproat vs Tyler Mahle), 9:45 PM ET ## Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Walbert Ureña (RHP) *Angel Stadium · 34 HR · 19.0% barrel · 105.4 mph EV · 0.718 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.31* **Top play tonight.** Platoon math wins more dinger props than people realize. Yordan Alvarez slugs .690 against right handers with 26 HR in that split, and tonight he gets Walbert Ureña. Alvarez squares the ball up at 19.0%, elite, top of the league contact quality on the year. Alvarez has been swinging at peak, 3 long balls in his last 7 games. That said, Walbert Ureña's 0.31 HR/9 is genuinely good. Treat this as a power play more than a matchup play. I am backing Alvarez to clear the fences. ## Munetaka Murakami, Chicago White Sox vs Max Fried (LHP) *Rate Field · 20 HR · 19.4% barrel · 104.7 mph EV · 0.498 xSLG* Munetaka Murakami's contact quality drives the pick here. His 19.4% barrel rate is elite, top of the league, and that profile produces home runs in bunches. Tonight against Max Fried he gets a chance to add to his 20 HR total. Murakami to go deep is the play tonight. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Ben Rice, New York Yankees vs Noah Schultz (LHP) *Rate Field · 30 HR · 15.4% barrel · 101.8 mph EV · 0.520 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.96* Noah Schultz throws his sweeper 20% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.629 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Ben Rice should be sitting on. Rice sits at 15.4%, the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry, and that profile carries the lean. I am backing Rice to clear the fences. ## Honorable Mentions - **Griffin Conine** (MIA) vs Zack Wheeler: 16.7% barrel rate. - **Luke Raley** (SEA) vs Kumar Rocker: 16.2% barrel rate. - **Mike Trout** (LAA) vs Tatsuya Imai: 19.1% barrel rate. - **Shea Langeliers** (ATH) vs Payton Tolle: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Willson Contreras** (BOS) vs Jack Perkins: 14.6% barrel rate. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jul-27-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*