# MLB Dinger Picks Today (July 25, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Who hits a home run tonight? 15 games analyzed through barrel rate, xSLG, platoon splits, and pitcher HR/9, with Esmerlyn Valdez on top of the dinger board. **Date:** 2026-07-25 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jul-25-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Saturday, July 25, 2026** are Esmerlyn Valdez (Score: 71, Esmerlyn Valdez rates a 71.4 dinger composite score against Shota Imanaga today), Yordan Alvarez (Score: 68, Yordan Alvarez rates a 67.8 dinger composite score against Sean Burke today), Hunter Goodman (Score: 62, Hunter Goodman rates a 62.2 dinger composite score against Robert Gasser today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: July 25, 2026 Best HR plays from tonight's 15 games. 317 batters evaluated on barrel rate, pitcher matchup, and recent form. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for July 24](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jul-24-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - KC at DET (Michael Wacha vs Casey Mize), 1:10 PM ET - AZ at WSH (Mitch Bratt vs Foster Griffin), 4:05 PM ET - LAA at SF (Ryan Johnson vs Robbie Ray), 4:05 PM ET - TOR at BOS (Dylan Cease vs Sonny Gray), 4:10 PM ET - SD at MIA (JP Sears vs Eury Pérez), 4:10 PM ET - NYY at PHI (Cam Schlittler vs TBD), 6:05 PM ET - CLE at TB (Tanner Bibee vs Nick Martinez), 6:10 PM ET - CHC at PIT (Shota Imanaga vs Paul Skenes), 6:40 PM ET - ATL at BAL (Bryce Elder vs Trevor Rogers), 7:05 PM ET - ATH at MIN (TBD vs TBD), 7:10 PM ET - HOU at CWS (Hunter Brown vs Sean Burke), 7:10 PM ET - COL at MIL (Ryan Feltner vs Robert Gasser), 7:10 PM ET - LAD at NYM (Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Nolan McLean), 7:15 PM ET - CIN at STL (Hunter Greene vs Andre Pallante), 7:15 PM ET - SEA at TEX (Bryan Woo vs Nathan Eovaldi), 7:15 PM ET ## Esmerlyn Valdez, Pittsburgh Pirates vs Shota Imanaga (LHP) *PNC Park · 13 HR · 29.7% barrel · 104.9 mph EV · 0.551 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.48* **Top play tonight.** Shota Imanaga throws his 4-seam fastball 43% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.503 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Esmerlyn Valdez should be sitting on. At 29.7%, Valdez carries barrel rate that screams "elite contact quality", top decile across MLB. The recent stretch tells you the timing is right: 3 HR in 7 games. Shota Imanaga averages just 91.5 mph on the heater, that's ML hitting practice for elite bats. Valdez to go deep is the play tonight. ## Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Sean Burke (RHP) *Rate Field · 34 HR · 19.2% barrel · 105.3 mph EV · 0.721 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.00* Lock in on the matchup math: 16% of Sean Burke's pitches are his sinker, and hitters are punishing it (.478 SLG). Yordan Alvarez has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. The barrel rate (19.2%) is in the elite, top of the league tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. Recent form lines up: 3 bombs in his last 7 contests. Take Alvarez to leave the yard tonight. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Hunter Goodman, Colorado Rockies vs Robert Gasser (LHP) *American Family Field · 31 HR · 17.5% barrel · 103.2 mph EV · 0.488 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.11* The reason Hunter Goodman jumps off the board: Robert Gasser can be hit on his sweeper, which batters are slugging 0.534 against this season. 27% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Hunter Goodman is going to see it. Underneath the matchup is a 17.5% barrel rate, which is elite, top of the league territory. Recent form lines up: 4 bombs in his last 7 contests. Robert Gasser's 91.2 mph average fastball is the kind of velocity power bats wait for. Goodman to go deep is the play tonight. ## Honorable Mentions - **Andrés Chaparro** (WSH) vs Mitch Bratt: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **James Wood** (WSH) vs Mitch Bratt: 22.1% barrel rate. - **CJ Abrams** (WSH) vs Mitch Bratt: 4 HR in his last 7 games. - **Riley Greene** (DET) vs Michael Wacha: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Griffin Conine** (MIA) vs JP Sears: 3 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jul-25-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*