# MLB Dinger Picks Today (July 24, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > MLB HR picks for July 24, 2026. Esmerlyn Valdez leads the board across 15 games. Statcast power metrics, matchup context, and hot streaks scored. **Date:** 2026-07-24 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jul-24-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Friday, July 24, 2026** are Esmerlyn Valdez (Score: 69, Esmerlyn Valdez rates a 68.8 dinger composite score against Matthew Boyd today), Yordan Alvarez (Score: 69, Yordan Alvarez rates a 68.7 dinger composite score against Davis Martin today), Griffin Conine (Score: 61, Griffin Conine rates a 61.3 dinger composite score against Germán Márquez today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: July 24, 2026 328 batters, 15 games. Here's where the power and the matchup line up for dingers tonight. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for July 23](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jul-23-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - COL at MIL (Tomoyuki Sugano vs Shane Drohan), 4:10 PM ET - KC at DET (Noah Cameron vs Tarik Skubal), 6:40 PM ET - CHC at PIT (Matthew Boyd vs Jared Jones), 6:40 PM ET - AZ at WSH (TBD vs Zack Littell), 6:45 PM ET - NYY at PHI (Will Warren vs Jesús Luzardo), 6:45 PM ET - ATL at BAL (Grant Holmes vs Trevor Rogers), 7:05 PM ET - LAD at NYM (Roki Sasaki vs Sean Manaea), 7:10 PM ET - CLE at TB (Joey Cantillo vs Shane McClanahan), 7:10 PM ET - SD at MIA (Germán Márquez vs TBD), 7:10 PM ET - TOR at BOS (Trey Yesavage vs Patrick Sandoval), 7:15 PM ET - HOU at CWS (Spencer Arrighetti vs Davis Martin), 7:40 PM ET - SEA at TEX (Bryce Miller vs MacKenzie Gore), 8:05 PM ET - ATH at MIN (Jacob Lopez vs Zebby Matthews), 8:10 PM ET - CIN at STL (Rhett Lowder vs Dustin May), 8:15 PM ET - LAA at SF (Grayson Rodriguez vs Logan Webb), 10:15 PM ET ## Esmerlyn Valdez, Pittsburgh Pirates vs Matthew Boyd (LHP) *PNC Park · 13 HR · 29.7% barrel · 104.9 mph EV · 0.551 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.02* **Top play tonight.** The reason Esmerlyn Valdez jumps off the board: Matthew Boyd can be hit on his 4-seam fastball, which batters are slugging 0.490 against this season. 52% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Esmerlyn Valdez is going to see it. Valdez squares the ball up at 29.7%, elite, top of the league contact quality on the year. Valdez has been swinging at peak, 3 long balls in his last 7 games. Take Valdez to leave the yard tonight. ## Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Davis Martin (RHP) *Rate Field · 34 HR · 19.2% barrel · 105.3 mph EV · 0.721 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.31* Davis Martin throws his cutter 14% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.523 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Yordan Alvarez should be sitting on. His 19.2% barrel rate (elite, top of the league) backs the take. He is also trending the right way, 3 HR over his last 7 games. One reason to size down: Davis Martin has been stingy with the long ball this year (0.31 HR/9), so the matchup is tougher than the bat profile alone reads. Alvarez is my HR lean in this spot. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Griffin Conine, Miami Marlins vs Germán Márquez (RHP) *loanDepot park · 7 HR · 17.5% barrel · 104.8 mph EV · 0.535 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.24* Griffin Conine's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Germán Márquez leans on a curveball 35% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .559 against it. The barrel rate (17.5%) is in the elite, top of the league tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. Conine is on a serious heater right now, 3 HR in 7 games is well past his baseline. Take Conine to leave the yard tonight. ## Honorable Mentions - **Shea Langeliers** (ATH) vs Zebby Matthews: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Hunter Goodman** (COL) vs Shane Drohan: 4 HR in his last 7 games. - **Kyle Schwarber** (PHI) vs Will Warren: 18.9% barrel rate. - **Shohei Ohtani** (LAD) vs Sean Manaea: 17.0% barrel rate. - **Jake Bauers** (MIL) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 13.6% barrel rate. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jul-24-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*