# MLB Dinger Picks Today (July 23, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Data driven MLB home run picks for today's slate (5 games). A 14 factor Statcast model combines barrel rate, exit velocity, platoon matchups, pitcher vulnerabil **Date:** 2026-07-23 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jul-23-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Thursday, July 23, 2026** are Junior Caminero (Score: 69, Junior Caminero rates a 69.3 dinger composite score against Shane Bieber today), Byron Buxton (Score: 69, Byron Buxton rates a 68.5 dinger composite score against Gavin Williams today), Matt Olson (Score: 67, Matt Olson rates a 67.3 dinger composite score against Griffin Canning today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: July 23, 2026 5 games on the board. These bats have the Statcast profiles and matchups to go deep. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for July 22](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jul-22-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - SD at ATL (Griffin Canning vs Chris Sale), 12:15 PM ET - MIN at CLE (Taj Bradley vs Gavin Williams), 1:10 PM ET - TB at TOR (Ian Seymour vs Shane Bieber), 3:07 PM ET - AZ at STL (TBD vs Michael McGreevy), 5:15 PM ET - KC at DET (TBD vs Troy Melton), 6:40 PM ET ## Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays vs Shane Bieber (RHP) *Rogers Centre · 29 HR · 13.6% barrel · 105.8 mph EV · 0.515 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.39* **Top play tonight.** Shane Bieber throws his 4-seam fastball 36% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.704 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Junior Caminero should be sitting on. His 13.6% barrel rate (above average) backs the take. Caminero is at .370 over the last 7, the bat is making loud contact, the long balls usually catch up. Caminero to go deep is the play tonight. ## Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins vs Gavin Williams (RHP) *Progressive Field · 25 HR · 18.1% barrel · 101.9 mph EV · 0.519 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.95* The matchup is a giveaway: Gavin Williams surrenders 1.95 HR per nine innings. Byron Buxton sits 25 deep already this year and can add to it tonight. He is hitting .333 over his last 7 games, the contact quality is there, the HR follows. Take Buxton to leave the yard tonight. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves vs Griffin Canning (RHP) *Truist Park · 26 HR · 14.0% barrel · 104.0 mph EV · 0.509 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.31* The reason Matt Olson jumps off the board: Griffin Canning can be hit on his changeup, which batters are slugging 0.484 against this season. 24% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Matt Olson is going to see it. His 14.0% barrel rate (elite, top of the league) backs the take. Olson to go deep is the play tonight. ## Honorable Mentions - **Drake Baldwin** (ATL) vs Griffin Canning: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Victor Mesa Jr.** (TB) vs Shane Bieber: 4 HR in his last 7 games. - **Ryan Jeffers** (MIN) vs Gavin Williams: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Jonathan Aranda** (TB) vs Shane Bieber: Shane Bieber giving up 2.39 HR/9. - **Ty France** (SD) vs Chris Sale: 5 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jul-23-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*