# MLB Dinger Picks Today (July 21, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Who hits a home run tonight? 15 games analyzed through barrel rate, xSLG, platoon splits, and pitcher HR/9, with Esmerlyn Valdez on top of the dinger board. **Date:** 2026-07-21 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jul-21-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Tuesday, July 21, 2026** are Esmerlyn Valdez (Score: 71, Esmerlyn Valdez rates a 71.0 dinger composite score against Will Warren today), Kyle Schwarber (Score: 69, Kyle Schwarber rates a 69.3 dinger composite score against Eric Lauer today), Yordan Alvarez (Score: 67, Yordan Alvarez rates a 67.3 dinger composite score against Tyler Phillips today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: July 21, 2026 15 games on the board. These bats have the Statcast profiles and matchups to go deep. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for July 20](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jul-20-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - MIN at CLE (TBD vs Parker Messick), 6:40 PM ET - LAD at PHI (Eric Lauer vs Zack Wheeler), 6:40 PM ET - PIT at NYY (Bubba Chandler vs Will Warren), 7:05 PM ET - TB at TOR (Drew Rasmussen vs Kevin Gausman), 7:07 PM ET - BAL at BOS (Kyle Bradish vs TBD), 7:10 PM ET - SD at ATL (Walker Buehler vs Reynaldo López), 7:15 PM ET - SF at KC (Tyler Mahle vs Luinder Avila), 7:40 PM ET - NYM at MIL (Zac Thornton vs Brandon Sproat), 7:40 PM ET - DET at CHC (Framber Valdez vs Ethan Roberts), 8:05 PM ET - CWS at TEX (Noah Schultz vs Kumar Rocker), 8:05 PM ET - MIA at HOU (Tyler Phillips vs Tatsuya Imai), 8:10 PM ET - WSH at COL (Miles Mikolas vs Michael Lorenzen), 8:40 PM ET - STL at LAA (Matthew Liberatore vs Walbert Ureña), 9:38 PM ET - ATH at AZ (Jack Perkins vs TBD), 9:40 PM ET - CIN at SEA (Chase Burns vs Luis Castillo), 9:40 PM ET ## Esmerlyn Valdez, Pittsburgh Pirates vs Will Warren (RHP) *Yankee Stadium · 12 HR · 27.4% barrel · 104.5 mph EV · 0.540 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.05* **Top play tonight.** Will Warren throws his sweeper 19% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.613 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Esmerlyn Valdez should be sitting on. His 27.4% barrel rate (elite, top of the league) backs the take. The recent stretch tells you the timing is right: 6 HR in 7 games. Valdez to go deep is the play tonight. ## Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies vs Eric Lauer (LHP) *Citizens Bank Park · 33 HR · 19.2% barrel · 104.2 mph EV · 0.519 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.88* Lock in on the matchup math: 13% of Eric Lauer's pitches are his curveball, and hitters are punishing it (.586 SLG). Kyle Schwarber has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. Schwarber squares the ball up at 19.2%, elite, top of the league contact quality on the year. An 89.8 mph fastball gives Schwarber something to drive. Take Schwarber to leave the yard tonight. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Tyler Phillips (RHP) *Daikin Park · 31 HR · 18.5% barrel · 105.2 mph EV · 0.708 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.97* Yordan Alvarez's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Tyler Phillips leans on a sinker 26% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .519 against it. Alvarez squares the ball up at 18.5%, elite, top of the league contact quality on the year. 2 HR in his last 7 games means the bat is on time, not just on paper. Take Alvarez to leave the yard tonight. ## Honorable Mentions - **Hunter Goodman** (COL) vs Miles Mikolas: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **James Wood** (WSH) vs Michael Lorenzen: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Griffin Conine** (MIA) vs Tatsuya Imai: 4 HR in his last 7 games. - **Ben Rice** (NYY) vs Bubba Chandler: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Matt Olson** (ATL) vs Walker Buehler: 2 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jul-21-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*