# MLB Dinger Picks Today (July 20, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > MLB HR picks for July 20, 2026. Ben Rice leads the board across 15 games. Statcast power metrics, matchup context, and hot streaks scored. **Date:** 2026-07-20 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jul-20-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's top MLB home run pick for Monday, July 20, 2026** is Ben Rice (Score: 66, Ben Rice rates a 66.3 dinger composite score against Braxton Ashcraft today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: July 20, 2026 152 batters, 15 games. Here's where the power and the matchup line up for dingers tonight. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for July 19](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jul-19-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - MIN at CLE (Joe Ryan vs Tanner Bibee), 6:40 PM ET - PIT at NYY (Braxton Ashcraft vs Ryan Weathers), 7:05 PM ET - TB at TOR (TBD vs Dylan Cease), 7:07 PM ET - BAL at BOS (TBD vs TBD), 7:10 PM ET - LAD at PHI (TBD vs TBD), 7:10 PM ET - SD at ATL (TBD vs TBD), 7:15 PM ET - SF at KC (TBD vs TBD), 7:40 PM ET - NYM at MIL (Freddy Peralta vs Jacob Misiorowski), 7:40 PM ET - DET at CHC (TBD vs TBD), 8:05 PM ET - CWS at TEX (Erick Fedde vs TBD), 8:05 PM ET - MIA at HOU (TBD vs TBD), 8:10 PM ET - WSH at COL (TBD vs TBD), 8:40 PM ET - ATH at AZ (Jeffrey Springs vs TBD), 9:40 PM ET - CIN at SEA (Andrew Abbott vs George Kirby), 9:40 PM ET - STL at LAA (Kyle Leahy vs José Soriano), 10:10 PM ET ## Ben Rice, New York Yankees vs Braxton Ashcraft (RHP) *Yankee Stadium · 29 HR · 15.5% barrel · 101.8 mph EV · 0.526 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.00* Ben Rice's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Braxton Ashcraft leans on a 4-seam fastball 32% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .516 against it. His 15.5% barrel rate (elite, top of the league) backs the take. Recent form lines up: 4 bombs in his last 7 contests. Rice to go deep is the play tonight. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Honorable Mentions - **Mike Trout** (LAA) vs Kyle Leahy: 19.7% barrel rate. - **Ryan Jeffers** (MIN) vs Tanner Bibee: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Jake Bauers** (MIL) vs Freddy Peralta: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Dominic Canzone** (SEA) vs Andrew Abbott: 14.8% barrel rate. - **Ketel Marte** (AZ) vs Jeffrey Springs: Jeffrey Springs giving up 3.01 HR/9. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jul-20-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*