# MLB Dinger Picks Today (July 17, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > MLB HR picks for July 17, 2026. Esmerlyn Valdez leads the board across 15 games. Statcast power metrics, matchup context, and hot streaks scored. **Date:** 2026-07-17 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jul-17-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Friday, July 17, 2026** are Esmerlyn Valdez (Score: 72, Esmerlyn Valdez rates a 72.2 dinger composite score against Gavin Williams today), Hunter Goodman (Score: 64, Hunter Goodman rates a 63.6 dinger composite score against Brady Singer today), Mickey Moniak (Score: 63, Mickey Moniak rates a 63.2 dinger composite score against Brady Singer today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: July 17, 2026 Every qualified bat scored across 14 factors. 148 candidates, 15 games, and here are the plays. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for July 16](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jul-16-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - TB at BOS (Griffin Jax vs Jake Bennett), 1:35 PM ET - TB at BOS (Griffin Jax vs Jake Bennett), 7:10 PM ET - LAD at NYY (TBD vs TBD), 7:05 PM ET - PIT at CLE (Jared Jones vs Gavin Williams), 7:10 PM ET - TEX at ATL (TBD vs Chris Sale), 7:15 PM ET - CWS at TOR (Anthony Kay vs Spencer Miles), 7:15 PM ET - MIA at MIL (TBD vs TBD), 7:40 PM ET - MIN at CHC (TBD vs Colin Rea), 8:05 PM ET - BAL at HOU (TBD vs TBD), 8:10 PM ET - SD at KC (Michael King vs Seth Lugo), 8:10 PM ET - CIN at COL (Brady Singer vs TBD), 8:40 PM ET - DET at LAA (Troy Melton vs TBD), 9:38 PM ET - WSH at ATH (TBD vs TBD), 9:40 PM ET - STL at AZ (TBD vs TBD), 9:40 PM ET - SF at SEA (Landen Roupp vs TBD), 10:10 PM ET ## Esmerlyn Valdez, Pittsburgh Pirates vs Gavin Williams (RHP) *Progressive Field · 10 HR · 29.8% barrel · 104.0 mph EV · 0.580 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.26* **Top play tonight.** Esmerlyn Valdez has gone deep 4 times in his last 7 games. The bat is in the kind of rhythm where you ride it until it breaks. Valdez sits at 29.8%, the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry, and that profile carries the lean. Take Valdez to leave the yard tonight. ## Hunter Goodman, Colorado Rockies vs Brady Singer (RHP) *Coors Field · 27 HR · 16.6% barrel · 103.1 mph EV · 0.472 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.88* The reason Hunter Goodman jumps off the board: Brady Singer can be hit on his sweeper, which batters are slugging 0.568 against this season. 12% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Hunter Goodman is going to see it. The barrel rate (16.6%) is in the elite, top of the league tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. Brady Singer averages just 90.7 mph on the heater, that's ML hitting practice for elite bats. Coors elevation does the rest, 5,200 feet of thin air adds carry. I am backing Goodman to clear the fences. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Mickey Moniak, Colorado Rockies vs Brady Singer (RHP) *Coors Field · 15 HR · 12.4% barrel · 100.2 mph EV · 0.446 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.88* Mickey Moniak's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Brady Singer leans on a sweeper 12% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .568 against it. Moniak sits at 12.4%, barrel rate that puts him comfortably in the top quartile, and that profile carries the lean. Brady Singer's 90.7 mph average fastball is the kind of velocity power bats wait for. 5,200 ft of elevation in Denver tacks on extra distance to anything in the air. Take Moniak to leave the yard tonight. ## Honorable Mentions - **Justin Foscue** (TEX) vs Chris Sale: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Mike Trout** (LAA) vs Troy Melton: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Ryan Jeffers** (MIN) vs Colin Rea: 14.8% barrel rate. - **Kazuma Okamoto** (TOR) vs Anthony Kay: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Gabriel Arias** (CLE) vs Jared Jones: 2 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jul-17-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*