# MLB Dinger Picks Today (July 16, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Data driven MLB home run picks for today's slate (1 games). A 14 factor Statcast model combines barrel rate, exit velocity, platoon matchups, pitcher vulnerabil **Date:** 2026-07-16 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jul-16-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Thursday, July 16, 2026** are Kyle Schwarber (Score: 74, Kyle Schwarber rates a 74.0 dinger composite score against Christian Scott today), Bryce Harper (Score: 64, Bryce Harper rates a 64.1 dinger composite score against Christian Scott today), Brandon Marsh (Score: 58, Brandon Marsh rates a 57.8 dinger composite score against Christian Scott today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: July 16, 2026 12 power bats scored across 1 games. These are tonight's top dinger targets. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** MLB HR Picks for July 15 ## Tonight's Slate - NYM at PHI (Christian Scott vs TBD), 7:10 PM ET ## Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies vs Christian Scott (RHP) *Citizens Bank Park · 32 HR · 19.4% barrel · 104.2 mph EV · 0.523 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.52* **Top play tonight.** Tonight is a platoon spot the model loves: Kyle Schwarber (21 HR vs RHP.549 SLG in that split) drawing Christian Scott. The barrel rate (19.4%) is in the elite, top of the league tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. The recent stretch tells you the timing is right: 2 HR in 7 games. Christian Scott has been giving up 1.52 HR/9 this year, well above league average. I am backing Schwarber to clear the fences. ## Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies vs Christian Scott (RHP) *Citizens Bank Park · 20 HR · 11.3% barrel · 101.8 mph EV · 0.516 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.52* Tonight is a platoon spot the model loves: Bryce Harper (17 HR vs RHP.608 SLG in that split) drawing Christian Scott. Underneath the matchup is a 11.3% barrel rate, which is above average territory. Christian Scott's 1.52 HR/9 number is well above the 1.2 league baseline. Harper is my HR lean in this spot. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Brandon Marsh, Philadelphia Phillies vs Christian Scott (RHP) *Citizens Bank Park · 15 HR · 9.4% barrel · 100.4 mph EV · 0.440 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.52* Brandon Marsh is a lefty who eats right handers.522 slugging in that split with 12 home runs. Christian Scott fits the script. One more reason: Christian Scott surrenders 1.52 long balls per nine. Marsh is my HR lean in this spot. ## Honorable Mentions - **Derek Hill** (PHI) vs Christian Scott: Christian Scott giving up 1.52 HR/9. - **Edmundo Sosa** (PHI) vs Christian Scott: Christian Scott giving up 1.52 HR/9. - **Bryson Stott** (PHI) vs Christian Scott: Christian Scott giving up 1.52 HR/9. - **J.T. Realmuto** (PHI) vs Christian Scott: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Trea Turner** (PHI) vs Christian Scott: Christian Scott giving up 1.52 HR/9. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - NRFI Picks Today: no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*