# MLB Dinger Picks Today (July 12, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Data driven MLB home run picks for today's slate (15 games). A 14 factor Statcast model combines barrel rate, exit velocity, platoon matchups, pitcher vulnerabi **Date:** 2026-07-12 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jul-12-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Sunday, July 12, 2026** are James Wood (Score: 70, James Wood rates a 69.7 dinger composite score against Will Warren today), Shea Langeliers (Score: 66, Shea Langeliers rates a 66.1 dinger composite score against Noah Schultz today), Elly De La Cruz (Score: 66, Elly De La Cruz rates a 65.7 dinger composite score against Matthew Boyd today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: July 12, 2026 294 power bats scored across 15 games. These are tonight's top dinger targets. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for July 11](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jul-11-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - MIL at PIT (Jacob Misiorowski vs Paul Skenes), 12:15 PM ET - KC at BAL (Seth Lugo vs Shane Baz), 1:35 PM ET - NYY at WSH (Will Warren vs Cade Cavalli), 1:35 PM ET - CHC at CIN (Matthew Boyd vs Andrew Abbott), 1:40 PM ET - BOS at NYM (Payton Tolle vs TBD), 1:40 PM ET - SEA at TB (Emerson Hancock vs Ian Seymour), 1:40 PM ET - PHI at DET (Zack Wheeler vs Tarik Skubal), 1:40 PM ET - CLE at MIA (Joey Cantillo vs TBD), 1:40 PM ET - LAA at MIN (José Soriano vs Taj Bradley), 2:10 PM ET - ATH at CWS (J.T. Ginn vs Noah Schultz), 2:10 PM ET - ATL at STL (JR Ritchie vs Dustin May), 2:15 PM ET - HOU at TEX (TBD vs TBD), 2:35 PM ET - COL at SF (Michael Lorenzen vs Trevor McDonald), 4:05 PM ET - AZ at LAD (Zac Gallen vs Emmet Sheehan), 4:10 PM ET - TOR at SD (Kevin Gausman vs Germán Márquez), 4:10 PM ET ## James Wood, Washington Nationals vs Will Warren (RHP) *Nationals Park · 25 HR · 22.8% barrel · 106.4 mph EV · 0.615 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.86* **Top play tonight.** James Wood's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Will Warren leans on a sweeper 20% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .627 against it. At 22.8%, Wood carries barrel rate that screams "elite contact quality", top decile across MLB. The recent stretch tells you the timing is right: 4 HR in 7 games. Wood is my HR lean in this spot. ## Shea Langeliers, Athletics vs Noah Schultz (LHP) *Rate Field · 20 HR · 14.6% barrel · 102.3 mph EV · 0.514 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.98* Noah Schultz throws his sweeper 22% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.656 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Shea Langeliers should be sitting on. Underneath the matchup is a 14.6% barrel rate, which is elite, top of the league territory. Langeliers is my HR lean in this spot. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds vs Matthew Boyd (LHP) *Great American Ball Park · 14 HR · 15.3% barrel · 105.4 mph EV · 0.478 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.02* Elly De La Cruz's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Matthew Boyd leans on a changeup 30% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .467 against it. Cruz sits at 15.3%, the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry, and that profile carries the lean. The recent stretch tells you the timing is right: 2 HR in 7 games. Take Cruz to leave the yard tonight. ## Honorable Mentions - **Ben Rice** (NYY) vs Cade Cavalli: 5 HR in his last 7 games. - **Munetaka Murakami** (CWS) vs J.T. Ginn: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Shohei Ohtani** (LAD) vs Zac Gallen: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Kyle Schwarber** (PHI) vs Tarik Skubal: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Luis García Jr.** (WSH) vs Will Warren: 4 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jul-12-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*