# MLB Dinger Picks Today (July 10, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Who hits a home run tonight? 15 games analyzed through barrel rate, xSLG, platoon splits, and pitcher HR/9, with Yordan Alvarez on top of the dinger board. **Date:** 2026-07-10 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jul-10-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Friday, July 10, 2026** are Yordan Alvarez (Score: 68, Yordan Alvarez rates a 68.3 dinger composite score against Cal Quantrill today), Mike Trout (Score: 64, Mike Trout rates a 64.4 dinger composite score against Zebby Matthews today), Elly De La Cruz (Score: 64, Elly De La Cruz rates a 64.1 dinger composite score against Shota Imanaga today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: July 10, 2026 15 games on the board. These bats have the Statcast profiles and matchups to go deep. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for July 9](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jul-9-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - PHI at DET (Aaron Nola vs Jack Flaherty), 6:40 PM ET - MIL at PIT (Brandon Sproat vs Braxton Ashcraft), 6:40 PM ET - NYY at WSH (Ryan Weathers vs Zack Littell), 6:45 PM ET - KC at BAL (Luinder Avila vs Brandon Young), 7:05 PM ET - CHC at CIN (Shota Imanaga vs Hunter Greene), 7:10 PM ET - SEA at TB (Luis Castillo vs Nick Martinez), 7:10 PM ET - CLE at MIA (Parker Messick vs Sandy Alcantara), 7:10 PM ET - BOS at NYM (Sonny Gray vs Nolan McLean), 7:15 PM ET - ATH at CWS (Aaron Civale vs Sean Burke), 7:40 PM ET - HOU at TEX (Hunter Brown vs Cal Quantrill), 8:05 PM ET - LAA at MIN (Grayson Rodriguez vs Zebby Matthews), 8:10 PM ET - ATL at STL (Chris Sale vs Kyle Leahy), 8:15 PM ET - TOR at SD (Shane Bieber vs JP Sears), 9:40 PM ET - AZ at LAD (TBD vs Shohei Ohtani), 10:10 PM ET - COL at SF (Tanner Gordon vs Robbie Ray), 10:15 PM ET ## Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Cal Quantrill (RHP) *Globe Life Field · 29 HR · 18.8% barrel · 105.4 mph EV · 0.708 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.33* **Top play tonight.** The reason Yordan Alvarez jumps off the board: Cal Quantrill can be hit on his cutter, which batters are slugging 0.479 against this season. 32% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Yordan Alvarez is going to see it. The barrel rate (18.8%) is in the elite, top of the league tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. He is also trending the right way, 3 HR over his last 7 games. Take Alvarez to leave the yard tonight. ## Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels vs Zebby Matthews (RHP) *Target Field · 17 HR · 21.0% barrel · 103.8 mph EV · 0.560 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.20* Lock in on the matchup math: 12% of Zebby Matthews's pitches are his changeup, and hitters are punishing it (.655 SLG). Mike Trout has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. Trout sits at 21.0%, the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry, and that profile carries the lean. Recent form lines up: 3 bombs in his last 7 contests. Take Trout to leave the yard tonight. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds vs Shota Imanaga (LHP) *Great American Ball Park · 13 HR · 14.5% barrel · 105.4 mph EV · 0.476 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.04* Shota Imanaga throws his 4-seam fastball 44% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.507 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Elly De La Cruz should be sitting on. Cruz squares the ball up at 14.5%, elite, top of the league contact quality on the year. An 91.6 mph fastball gives Cruz something to drive. I am backing Cruz to clear the fences. ## Honorable Mentions - **James Wood** (WSH) vs Ryan Weathers: 4 HR in his last 7 games. - **Riley Greene** (DET) vs Aaron Nola: 4 HR in his last 7 games. - **Ben Rice** (NYY) vs Zack Littell: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Matt Olson** (ATL) vs Kyle Leahy: 4 HR in his last 7 games. - **Kyle Schwarber** (PHI) vs Jack Flaherty: 2 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jul-10-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*