# MLB Dinger Picks Today (August 9, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Dinger of the Day for August 9, 2026. A slate of 15 games scored across 14 Statcast and matchup factors, with Esmerlyn Valdez leading tonight's HR picks. **Date:** 2026-08-09 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-9-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Sunday, August 9, 2026** are Esmerlyn Valdez (Score: 67, Esmerlyn Valdez rates a 66.7 dinger composite score against Sean Manaea today), Matt Olson (Score: 64, Matt Olson rates a 64.2 dinger composite score against Cam Schlittler today), Shohei Ohtani (Score: 64, Shohei Ohtani rates a 63.6 dinger composite score against Eduardo Rodriguez today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: August 9, 2026 Every qualified bat scored across 14 factors. 303 candidates, 15 games, and here are the plays. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for August 8](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-8-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - CIN at WSH (Brady Singer vs TBD), 12:15 PM ET - ATH at BOS (J.T. Ginn vs Erik Miller), 1:35 PM ET - NYM at PIT (Sean Manaea vs Jared Jones), 1:35 PM ET - TOR at PHI (Shane Bieber vs Jesús Luzardo), 1:35 PM ET - ATL at NYY (Grant Holmes vs Cam Schlittler), 1:35 PM ET - LAA at MIA (Grayson Rodriguez vs Ryan Gusto), 1:40 PM ET - CHC at KC (Matthew Boyd vs Randy Dobnak), 2:10 PM ET - CLE at CWS (Joey Cantillo vs Davis Martin), 2:10 PM ET - MIN at MIL (Connor Prielipp vs Jacob Misiorowski), 2:10 PM ET - COL at STL (Michael Lorenzen vs Michael McGreevy), 2:15 PM ET - BAL at TEX (Cade Povich vs Kumar Rocker), 2:35 PM ET - DET at SF (Troy Melton vs Logan Webb), 4:05 PM ET - LAD at AZ (Justin Wrobleski vs Eduardo Rodriguez), 4:10 PM ET - TB at SEA (Ian Seymour vs Emerson Hancock), 4:10 PM ET - HOU at SD (TBD vs TBD), 8:20 PM ET ## Esmerlyn Valdez, Pittsburgh Pirates vs Sean Manaea (LHP) *PNC Park · 14 HR · 23.6% barrel · 103.2 mph EV · 0.480 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.21* **Top play tonight.** Lock in on the matchup math: 31% of Sean Manaea's pitches are his sweeper, and hitters are punishing it (.456 SLG). Esmerlyn Valdez has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. The barrel rate (23.6%) is in the elite, top of the league tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. Sean Manaea averages just 89.9 mph on the heater, that's ML hitting practice for elite bats. I am backing Valdez to clear the fences. ## Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves vs Cam Schlittler (RHP) *Yankee Stadium · 33 HR · 15.5% barrel · 104.0 mph EV · 0.523 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.68* Recency bias is real, but so is 5 HR in 7 games while hitting .400. Matt Olson is locked in, and Cam Schlittler is not the arm to cool him off. Olson sits at 15.5%, the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry, and that profile carries the lean. That said, Cam Schlittler's 0.68 HR/9 is genuinely good. Treat this as a power play more than a matchup play. Take Olson to leave the yard tonight. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers vs Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP) *Chase Field · 26 HR · 16.7% barrel · 103.7 mph EV · 0.579 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.68* Eduardo Rodriguez throws his cutter 13% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.550 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Shohei Ohtani should be sitting on. Ohtani squares the ball up at 16.7%, elite, top of the league contact quality on the year. The recent stretch tells you the timing is right: 3 HR in 7 games. An 91.2 mph fastball gives Ohtani something to drive. That said, Eduardo Rodriguez's 0.68 HR/9 is genuinely good. Treat this as a power play more than a matchup play. I am backing Ohtani to clear the fences. ## Honorable Mentions - **Junior Caminero** (TB) vs Emerson Hancock: 4 HR in his last 7 games. - **Luis García Jr.** (NYY) vs Grant Holmes: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Mickey Moniak** (COL) vs Michael McGreevy: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Bryce Harper** (PHI) vs Shane Bieber: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Ben Rice** (NYY) vs Grant Holmes: 15.6% barrel rate. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-9-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*