# MLB Dinger Picks Today (August 7, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > MLB HR picks for August 7, 2026. Esmerlyn Valdez leads the board across 15 games. Statcast power metrics, matchup context, and hot streaks scored. **Date:** 2026-08-07 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-7-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Friday, August 7, 2026** are Esmerlyn Valdez (Score: 65, Esmerlyn Valdez rates a 65.3 dinger composite score against Zac Thornton today), Yordan Alvarez (Score: 64, Yordan Alvarez rates a 64.1 dinger composite score against Robbie Ray today), Alec Burleson (Score: 61, Alec Burleson rates a 61.0 dinger composite score against Ryan Feltner today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: August 7, 2026 A slate of 15 games and 252 eligible bats. These Statcast profiles and matchups stand out. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for August 6](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-6-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - NYM at PIT (Zac Thornton vs TBD), 6:40 PM ET - TOR at PHI (José Soriano vs Zack Wheeler), 6:40 PM ET - CIN at WSH (TBD vs TBD), 6:45 PM ET - ATL at NYY (Chris Sale vs Max Fried), 7:05 PM ET - ATH at BOS (Jack Perkins vs Payton Tolle), 7:10 PM ET - LAA at MIA (TBD vs Tyler Phillips), 7:10 PM ET - CLE at CWS (Parker Messick vs TBD), 7:40 PM ET - MIN at MIL (Connor Prielipp vs Shane Drohan), 7:40 PM ET - CHC at KC (Kevin Gausman vs TBD), 8:10 PM ET - COL at STL (Ryan Feltner vs Kyle Leahy), 8:15 PM ET - BAL at TEX (Shane Baz vs Nathan Eovaldi), 8:15 PM ET - LAD at AZ (Roki Sasaki vs TBD), 9:40 PM ET - HOU at SD (Ronel Blanco vs Robbie Ray), 9:40 PM ET - TB at SEA (Drew Rasmussen vs Logan Gilbert), 9:45 PM ET - DET at SF (Keider Montero vs TBD), 10:15 PM ET ## Esmerlyn Valdez, Pittsburgh Pirates vs Zac Thornton (LHP) *PNC Park · 14 HR · 24.1% barrel · 103.4 mph EV · 0.484 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.92* **Top play tonight.** Esmerlyn Valdez is a righty who eats left handers, .808 slugging in that split with 7 home runs. Zac Thornton fits the script. Valdez sits at 24.1%, the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry, and that profile carries the lean. Take Valdez to leave the yard tonight. ## Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Robbie Ray (LHP) *Petco Park · 35 HR · 18.3% barrel · 105.3 mph EV · 0.704 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.66* When Yordan Alvarez connects, the average exit velocity is 105.3 mph and his elite 18.3% barrel rate (90th+ percentile) means he is squaring balls up at a top of the league rate. Robbie Ray is the matchup to take advantage. He is hitting .385 over his last 7 games, the contact quality is there, the HR follows. Robbie Ray keeps the ball off the ground (36% GB rate), which is the right profile for a HR play. One reason to size down: Robbie Ray has been stingy with the long ball this year (0.66 HR/9), so the matchup is tougher than the bat profile alone reads. Alvarez is my HR lean in this spot. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Alec Burleson, St. Louis Cardinals vs Ryan Feltner (RHP) *Busch Stadium · 18 HR · 11.6% barrel · 102.2 mph EV · 0.540 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.85* Ryan Feltner throws his slider 26% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.635 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Alec Burleson should be sitting on. The barrel rate (11.6%) is in the above average tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. Burleson has been swinging at peak, 3 long balls in his last 7 games. I am backing Burleson to clear the fences. ## Honorable Mentions - **Junior Caminero** (TB) vs Logan Gilbert: 4 HR in his last 7 games. - **Christian Encarnacion-Strand** (BAL) vs Nathan Eovaldi: 22.2% barrel rate. - **Munetaka Murakami** (CWS) vs Parker Messick: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Matt Olson** (ATL) vs Max Fried: 4 HR in his last 7 games. - **Hunter Goodman** (COL) vs Kyle Leahy: 2 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-7-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*