# MLB Dinger Picks Today (August 5, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Dinger of the Day for August 5, 2026. A slate of 15 games scored across 14 Statcast and matchup factors, with Yordan Alvarez leading tonight's HR picks. **Date:** 2026-08-05 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-5-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Wednesday, August 5, 2026** are Yordan Alvarez (Score: 68, Yordan Alvarez rates a 67.9 dinger composite score against Dylan Cease today), Munetaka Murakami (Score: 67, Munetaka Murakami rates a 67.3 dinger composite score against Sonny Gray today), Griffin Conine (Score: 67, Griffin Conine rates a 66.7 dinger composite score against Bryce Elder today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: August 5, 2026 303 batters, 15 games. Here's where the power and the matchup line up for dingers tonight. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for August 4](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-4-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - TOR at HOU (Dylan Cease vs Hunter Brown), 2:10 PM ET - LAD at CHC (Eric Lauer vs Shota Imanaga), 2:20 PM ET - SF at TEX (Carson Whisenhunt vs TBD), 2:35 PM ET - TB at COL (Nick Martinez vs Tomoyuki Sugano), 3:10 PM ET - LAA at BAL (Reid Detmers vs Trevor Rogers), 6:35 PM ET - NYM at CLE (Nolan McLean vs Slade Cecconi), 6:40 PM ET - ATH at CIN (Mason Barnett vs Rhett Lowder), 6:40 PM ET - WSH at PHI (Jake Irvin vs Andrew Painter), 6:40 PM ET - STL at NYY (Andre Pallante vs Will Warren), 7:05 PM ET - CWS at BOS (Sean Burke vs Sonny Gray), 7:10 PM ET - MIA at ATL (Eury Pérez vs Bryce Elder), 7:15 PM ET - MIN at KC (Dean Kremer vs Noah Cameron), 7:40 PM ET - PIT at MIL (Paul Skenes vs TBD), 7:40 PM ET - SD at AZ (TBD vs Mitch Bratt), 9:40 PM ET - DET at SEA (Troy Melton vs Bryan Woo), 9:40 PM ET ## Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Dylan Cease (RHP) *Daikin Park · 35 HR · 18.4% barrel · 105.3 mph EV · 0.713 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.66* **Top play tonight.** Platoon math wins more dinger props than people realize. Yordan Alvarez slugs .689 against right handers with 26 HR in that split, and tonight he gets Dylan Cease. His 18.4% barrel rate (elite, top of the league) backs the take. Alvarez is at .440 over the last 7, the bat is making loud contact, the long balls usually catch up. One reason to size down: Dylan Cease has been stingy with the long ball this year (0.66 HR/9), so the matchup is tougher than the bat profile alone reads. Alvarez to go deep is the play tonight. ## Munetaka Murakami, Chicago White Sox vs Sonny Gray (RHP) *Fenway Park · 24 HR · 20.2% barrel · 104.6 mph EV · 0.513 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.97* The reason Munetaka Murakami jumps off the board: Sonny Gray can be hit on his curveball, which batters are slugging 0.707 against this season. 16% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Munetaka Murakami is going to see it. Murakami squares the ball up at 20.2%, elite, top of the league contact quality on the year. Recent form lines up: 2 bombs in his last 7 contests. An 90.7 mph fastball gives Murakami something to drive. I am backing Murakami to clear the fences. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Griffin Conine, Miami Marlins vs Bryce Elder (RHP) *Truist Park · 10 HR · 16.9% barrel · 104.2 mph EV · 0.529 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.71* Bryce Elder throws his slider 25% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.470 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Griffin Conine should be sitting on. The barrel rate (16.9%) is in the elite, top of the league tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. The recent stretch tells you the timing is right: 3 HR in 7 games. Bryce Elder averages just 91.1 mph on the heater, that's ML hitting practice for elite bats. I am backing Conine to clear the fences. ## Honorable Mentions - **Junior Caminero** (TB) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **James Wood** (WSH) vs Andrew Painter: 21.1% barrel rate. - **Bryce Harper** (PHI) vs Jake Irvin: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Kyle Schwarber** (PHI) vs Jake Irvin: 17.7% barrel rate. - **Matt Olson** (ATL) vs Eury Pérez: 4 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-5-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*