# MLB Dinger Picks Today (August 4, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Who hits a home run tonight? 15 games analyzed through barrel rate, xSLG, platoon splits, and pitcher HR/9, with Yordan Alvarez on top of the dinger board. **Date:** 2026-08-04 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-4-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Tuesday, August 4, 2026** are Yordan Alvarez (Score: 71, Yordan Alvarez rates a 70.5 dinger composite score against Trey Yesavage today), Griffin Conine (Score: 67, Griffin Conine rates a 66.6 dinger composite score against Grant Holmes today), Kyle Schwarber (Score: 66, Kyle Schwarber rates a 66.1 dinger composite score against Zack Littell today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: August 4, 2026 15 games on the board. These bats have the Statcast profiles and matchups to go deep. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for August 3](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-3-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - LAA at BAL (Reid Detmers vs TBD), 6:35 PM ET - NYM at CLE (Sean Manaea vs Joey Cantillo), 6:40 PM ET - ATH at CIN (J.T. Ginn vs Brady Singer), 6:40 PM ET - WSH at PHI (Zack Littell vs Jesús Luzardo), 6:40 PM ET - STL at NYY (TBD vs Ryan Weathers), 7:05 PM ET - CWS at BOS (Davis Martin vs Patrick Sandoval), 7:10 PM ET - MIA at ATL (TBD vs Grant Holmes), 7:15 PM ET - MIN at KC (Joe Ryan vs Randy Dobnak), 7:40 PM ET - PIT at MIL (Jared Jones vs Logan Henderson), 7:40 PM ET - LAD at CHC (Tarik Skubal vs Javier Assad), 8:05 PM ET - SF at TEX (Robbie Ray vs MacKenzie Gore), 8:05 PM ET - TOR at HOU (Trey Yesavage vs Hayden Wesneski), 8:10 PM ET - TB at COL (TBD vs Gabriel Hughes), 8:40 PM ET - SD at AZ (TBD vs Eduardo Rodriguez), 9:40 PM ET - DET at SEA (Casey Mize vs Emerson Hancock), 9:40 PM ET ## Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Trey Yesavage (RHP) *Daikin Park · 35 HR · 18.4% barrel · 105.3 mph EV · 0.713 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.26* **Top play tonight.** The reason Yordan Alvarez jumps off the board: Trey Yesavage can be hit on his slider, which batters are slugging 0.451 against this season. 25% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Yordan Alvarez is going to see it. Alvarez sits at 18.4%, the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry, and that profile carries the lean. He is hitting .417 over his last 7 games, the contact quality is there, the HR follows. Take Alvarez to leave the yard tonight. ## Griffin Conine, Miami Marlins vs Grant Holmes (RHP) *Truist Park · 10 HR · 16.9% barrel · 104.2 mph EV · 0.529 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.71* Grant Holmes throws his 4-seam fastball 31% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.500 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Griffin Conine should be sitting on. Underneath the matchup is a 16.9% barrel rate, which is elite, top of the league territory. He is also trending the right way, 3 HR over his last 7 games. Conine is my HR lean in this spot. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies vs Zack Littell (RHP) *Citizens Bank Park · 33 HR · 17.7% barrel · 104.1 mph EV · 0.495 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.99* Kyle Schwarber's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Zack Littell leans on a sinker 15% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .662 against it. Schwarber sits at 17.7%, the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry, and that profile carries the lean. Zack Littell's 91.5 mph average fastball is the kind of velocity power bats wait for. Take Schwarber to leave the yard tonight. ## Honorable Mentions - **Bryce Harper** (PHI) vs Zack Littell: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Coby Mayo** (BAL) vs Reid Detmers: 14 on the season. - **Munetaka Murakami** (CWS) vs Patrick Sandoval: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Esmerlyn Valdez** (PIT) vs Logan Henderson: 24.1% barrel rate. - **Shohei Ohtani** (LAD) vs Javier Assad: 2 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-4-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*