# MLB Dinger Picks Today (August 31, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Data driven MLB home run picks for today's slate (12 games). A 14 factor Statcast model combines barrel rate, exit velocity, platoon matchups, pitcher vulnerabi **Date:** 2026-08-31 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-31-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Monday, August 31, 2026** are Pete Alonso (Score: 71, Pete Alonso rates a 70.8 dinger composite score against Tanner Gordon today), Hunter Goodman (Score: 66, Hunter Goodman rates a 66.2 dinger composite score against Kyle Bradish today), Andrés Chaparro (Score: 66, Andrés Chaparro rates a 65.8 dinger composite score against Ryan Gusto today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: August 31, 2026 12 games on the board. These bats have the Statcast profiles and matchups to go deep. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for August 30](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-30-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - SF at ATL (TBD vs Bryce Elder), 6:05 PM ET - SD at CIN (Michael King vs Brady Singer), 6:40 PM ET - NYM at TB (Robert Stock vs Ian Seymour), 6:40 PM ET - SEA at BOS (George Kirby vs Payton Tolle), 6:45 PM ET - MIA at WSH (Ryan Gusto vs TBD), 6:45 PM ET - DET at MIN (Jackson Jobe vs Taj Bradley), 7:40 PM ET - MIL at CHC (Kyle Harrison vs Clay Holmes), 7:40 PM ET - ATH at TEX (Gage Jump vs Jacob deGrom), 8:05 PM ET - CWS at HOU (TBD vs TBD), 8:10 PM ET - BAL at COL (Kyle Bradish vs Tanner Gordon), 8:40 PM ET - NYY at LAA (Elmer Rodríguez vs George Klassen), 9:38 PM ET - PHI at AZ (TBD vs TBD), 9:40 PM ET ## Pete Alonso, Baltimore Orioles vs Tanner Gordon (RHP) *Coors Field · 32 HR · 13.9% barrel · 103.9 mph EV · 0.545 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.70* **Top play tonight.** The reason Pete Alonso jumps off the board: Tanner Gordon can be hit on his slider, which batters are slugging 0.561 against this season. 23% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Pete Alonso is going to see it. Alonso squares the ball up at 13.9%, above average contact quality on the year. Recent form lines up: 2 bombs in his last 7 contests. Park factor is the kicker: 5,200 ft means warning track flies become souvenirs. Take Alonso to leave the yard tonight. ## Hunter Goodman, Colorado Rockies vs Kyle Bradish (RHP) *Coors Field · 36 HR · 16.5% barrel · 102.8 mph EV · 0.474 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.31* Kyle Bradish throws his slider 25% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.525 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Hunter Goodman should be sitting on. At 16.5%, Goodman carries barrel rate that screams "elite contact quality", top decile across MLB. Goodman has been swinging at peak, 2 long balls in his last 7 games. Coors elevation does the rest, 5,200 feet of thin air adds carry. Goodman is my HR lean in this spot. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Andrés Chaparro, Washington Nationals vs Ryan Gusto (RHP) *Nationals Park · 9 HR · 14.6% barrel · 101.8 mph EV · 0.486 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.30* The reason Andrés Chaparro jumps off the board: Ryan Gusto can be hit on his sinker, which batters are slugging 0.615 against this season. 13% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Andrés Chaparro is going to see it. Underneath the matchup is a 14.6% barrel rate, which is elite, top of the league territory. Chaparro to go deep is the play tonight. ## Honorable Mentions - **Eduardo Valencia** (DET) vs Taj Bradley: 18.9% barrel rate. - **Pete Crow-Armstrong** (CHC) vs Kyle Harrison: 4 HR in his last 7 games. - **Christian Encarnacion-Strand** (BAL) vs Tanner Gordon: 16.5% barrel rate. - **Coby Mayo** (BAL) vs Tanner Gordon: 12.7% barrel rate. - **Luis García Jr.** (NYY) vs George Klassen: 3 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-31-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*