# MLB Dinger Picks Today (August 31, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Data driven MLB home run picks for today's slate (12 games). A 14 factor Statcast model combines barrel rate, exit velocity, platoon matchups, pitcher vulnerabi **Date:** 2026-08-31 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-31-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Monday, August 31, 2026** are Pete Alonso (Score: 71, Pete Alonso rates a 70.8 dinger composite score against Tanner Gordon today), Andrés Chaparro (Score: 66, Andrés Chaparro rates a 65.8 dinger composite score against Ryan Gusto today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: August 31, 2026 12 games on the board. These bats have the Statcast profiles and matchups to go deep. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for August 30](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-30-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - SF at ATL (TBD vs Bryce Elder), 6:05 PM ET - SD at CIN (Michael King vs Brady Singer), 6:40 PM ET - NYM at TB (Robert Stock vs Ian Seymour), 6:40 PM ET - SEA at BOS (George Kirby vs Payton Tolle), 6:45 PM ET - MIA at WSH (Ryan Gusto vs TBD), 6:45 PM ET - DET at MIN (Jackson Jobe vs Taj Bradley), 7:40 PM ET - MIL at CHC (Kyle Harrison vs Clay Holmes), 7:40 PM ET - ATH at TEX (Gage Jump vs Jacob deGrom), 8:05 PM ET - CWS at HOU (TBD vs TBD), 8:10 PM ET - BAL at COL (Kyle Bradish vs Tanner Gordon), 8:40 PM ET - NYY at LAA (Elmer Rodríguez vs George Klassen), 9:38 PM ET - PHI at AZ (TBD vs TBD), 9:40 PM ET ## Pete Alonso, Baltimore Orioles vs Tanner Gordon (RHP) *Coors Field · 32 HR · 13.9% barrel · 103.9 mph EV · 0.545 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.70* **Top play tonight.** The reason Pete Alonso jumps off the board: Tanner Gordon can be hit on his slider, which batters are slugging 0.561 against this season. 23% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Pete Alonso is going to see it. Alonso squares the ball up at 13.9%, above average contact quality on the year. Recent form lines up: 2 bombs in his last 7 contests. Park factor is the kicker: 5,200 ft means warning track flies become souvenirs. Take Alonso to leave the yard tonight. ## Andrés Chaparro, Washington Nationals vs Ryan Gusto (RHP) *Nationals Park · 9 HR · 14.6% barrel · 101.8 mph EV · 0.486 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.30* The reason Andrés Chaparro jumps off the board: Ryan Gusto can be hit on his sinker, which batters are slugging 0.615 against this season. 13% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Andrés Chaparro is going to see it. Underneath the matchup is a 14.6% barrel rate, which is elite, top of the league territory. Chaparro to go deep is the play tonight. ## Honorable Mentions - **Eduardo Valencia** (DET) vs Taj Bradley: 18.9% barrel rate. - **Christian Encarnacion-Strand** (BAL) vs Tanner Gordon: 16.5% barrel rate. - **Coby Mayo** (BAL) vs Tanner Gordon: 12.7% barrel rate. - **Luis García Jr.** (NYY) vs George Klassen: 3 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-31-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*