# MLB Dinger Picks Today (August 3, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > MLB HR picks for August 3, 2026. Yordan Alvarez leads the board across 8 games. Statcast power metrics, matchup context, and hot streaks scored. **Date:** 2026-08-03 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-3-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Monday, August 3, 2026** are Yordan Alvarez (Score: 77, Yordan Alvarez rates a 77.2 dinger composite score against Shane Bieber today), Hunter Goodman (Score: 71, Hunter Goodman rates a 70.7 dinger composite score against Ian Seymour today), James Wood (Score: 70, James Wood rates a 70.1 dinger composite score against Aaron Nola today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: August 3, 2026 Every qualified bat scored across 14 factors. 160 candidates, 8 games, and here are the plays. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for August 2](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-2-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - WSH at PHI (Andrew Alvarez vs Aaron Nola), 6:40 PM ET - STL at NYY (Michael McGreevy vs Cam Schlittler), 7:05 PM ET - PIT at MIL (Bubba Chandler vs Brandon Sproat), 7:40 PM ET - LAD at CHC (Justin Wrobleski vs Matthew Boyd), 8:05 PM ET - SF at TEX (Logan Webb vs Cal Quantrill), 8:05 PM ET - TOR at HOU (Shane Bieber vs Hayden Wesneski), 8:10 PM ET - TB at COL (Ian Seymour vs Michael Lorenzen), 8:40 PM ET - SD at AZ (TBD vs TBD), 9:40 PM ET ## Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Shane Bieber (RHP) *Daikin Park · 35 HR · 18.5% barrel · 105.4 mph EV · 0.713 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.22* **Top play tonight.** Yordan Alvarez's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Shane Bieber leans on a slider 10% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .684 against it. At 18.5%, Alvarez carries barrel rate that screams "elite contact quality", top decile across MLB. Alvarez is my HR lean in this spot. ## Hunter Goodman, Colorado Rockies vs Ian Seymour (LHP) *Coors Field · 31 HR · 16.9% barrel · 102.9 mph EV · 0.466 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.60* The reason Hunter Goodman jumps off the board: Ian Seymour can be hit on his sinker, which batters are slugging 0.710 against this season. 14% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Hunter Goodman is going to see it. Goodman sits at 16.9%, the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry, and that profile carries the lean. The recent stretch tells you the timing is right: 2 HR in 7 games. Ian Seymour's 91.0 mph average fastball is the kind of velocity power bats wait for. 5,200 ft of elevation in Denver tacks on extra distance to anything in the air. I am backing Goodman to clear the fences. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## James Wood, Washington Nationals vs Aaron Nola (RHP) *Citizens Bank Park · 30 HR · 21.1% barrel · 106.2 mph EV · 0.593 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.56* Aaron Nola throws his 4-seam fastball 24% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.695 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch James Wood should be sitting on. Wood squares the ball up at 21.1%, elite, top of the league contact quality on the year. Wood has been swinging at peak, 2 long balls in his last 7 games. An 91.1 mph fastball gives Wood something to drive. I am backing Wood to clear the fences. ## Honorable Mentions - **Kyle Schwarber** (PHI) vs Zack Littell: 17.8% barrel rate. - **Spencer Jones** (NYY) vs Matthew Liberatore: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Esmerlyn Valdez** (PIT) vs Brandon Sproat: 24.7% barrel rate. - **Ben Rice** (NYY) vs Matthew Liberatore: 15.8% barrel rate. - **Bryce Harper** (PHI) vs Zack Littell: Zack Littell giving up 1.99 HR/9. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-3-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*