# MLB Dinger Picks Today (August 29, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > MLB HR picks for August 29, 2026. Kyle Schwarber leads the board across 17 games. Statcast power metrics, matchup context, and hot streaks scored. **Date:** 2026-08-29 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-29-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Saturday, August 29, 2026** are Kyle Schwarber (Score: 67, Kyle Schwarber rates a 66.7 dinger composite score against Ryan Johnson today), Matt Olson (Score: 65, Matt Olson rates a 64.8 dinger composite score against Ryan Feltner today), Munetaka Murakami (Score: 64, Munetaka Murakami rates a 63.8 dinger composite score against Bailey Ober today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: August 29, 2026 Every qualified bat scored across 14 factors. 288 candidates, 17 games, and here are the plays. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for August 28](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-28-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - BOS at NYY (Jake Bennett vs Carlos Rodón), 1:05 PM ET - BOS at NYY (TBD vs TBD), 7:15 PM ET - LAD at DET (Blake Snell vs Keider Montero), 1:10 PM ET - CWS at MIN (Erick Fedde vs Bailey Ober), 2:10 PM ET - PIT at STL (TBD vs Kyle Leahy), 2:15 PM ET - CIN at CHC (Andrew Abbott vs Kevin Gausman), 2:20 PM ET - SEA at TOR (Kade Anderson vs José Soriano), 3:07 PM ET - AZ at SF (TBD vs TBD), 4:05 PM ET - AZ at SF (TBD vs TBD), 10:05 PM ET - MIA at WSH (Sandy Alcantara vs Cade Cavalli), 4:05 PM ET - KC at CLE (Daniel Lynch IV vs Foster Griffin), 4:10 PM ET - HOU at NYM (Cristian Javier vs Nolan McLean), 4:10 PM ET - SD at TB (Walker Buehler vs Nick Martinez), 4:10 PM ET - COL at ATL (Ryan Feltner vs Martín Pérez), 4:10 PM ET - TEX at MIL (Cal Quantrill vs Shane Drohan), 7:15 PM ET - BAL at ATH (Shane Baz vs Jack Perkins), 10:05 PM ET - PHI at LAA (Cristopher Sánchez vs Ryan Johnson), 10:07 PM ET ## Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies vs Ryan Johnson (RHP) *Angel Stadium · 40 HR · 17.9% barrel · 103.8 mph EV · 0.502 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.96* **Top play tonight.** Kyle Schwarber's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Ryan Johnson leans on a sinker 22% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .738 against it. His 17.9% barrel rate (elite, top of the league) backs the take. The recent stretch tells you the timing is right: 3 HR in 7 games. An 90.6 mph fastball gives Schwarber something to drive. 97°F at first pitch is the kind of warm air environment that adds a few feet to deep contact. Schwarber is my HR lean in this spot. ## Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves vs Ryan Feltner (RHP) *Truist Park · 37 HR · 15.8% barrel · 103.9 mph EV · 0.524 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.41* The reason Matt Olson jumps off the board: Ryan Feltner can be hit on his slider, which batters are slugging 0.618 against this season. 24% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Matt Olson is going to see it. The barrel rate (15.8%) is in the elite, top of the league tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. I am backing Olson to clear the fences. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Munetaka Murakami, Chicago White Sox vs Bailey Ober (RHP) *Target Field · 29 HR · 19.7% barrel · 104.5 mph EV · 0.491 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.85* Munetaka Murakami's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Bailey Ober leans on a 4-seam fastball 33% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .522 against it. Murakami squares the ball up at 19.7%, elite, top of the league contact quality on the year. An 88.1 mph fastball gives Murakami something to drive. Take Murakami to leave the yard tonight. ## Honorable Mentions - **Miguel Vargas** (CWS) vs Bailey Ober: 14.5% barrel rate. - **Yordan Alvarez** (HOU) vs Nolan McLean: 17.0% barrel rate. - **Bryce Harper** (PHI) vs Ryan Johnson: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Pete Alonso** (BAL) vs Jack Perkins: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Eduardo Valencia** (DET) vs Blake Snell: 20.4% barrel rate. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-29-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*