# MLB Dinger Picks Today (August 28, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Data driven MLB home run picks for today's slate (15 games). A 14 factor Statcast model combines barrel rate, exit velocity, platoon matchups, pitcher vulnerabi **Date:** 2026-08-28 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-28-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Friday, August 28, 2026** are Matt Olson (Score: 65, Matt Olson rates a 64.9 dinger composite score against Tomoyuki Sugano today), Coby Mayo (Score: 65, Coby Mayo rates a 64.7 dinger composite score against Jacob Lopez today), Yordan Alvarez (Score: 64, Yordan Alvarez rates a 64.3 dinger composite score against Christian Scott today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: August 28, 2026 15 games on the board. These bats have the Statcast profiles and matchups to go deep. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for August 27](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-27-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - CIN at CHC (Rhett Lowder vs David Peterson), 2:20 PM ET - LAD at DET (Tarik Skubal vs Drew Anderson), 6:40 PM ET - MIA at WSH (Eury Pérez vs Jackson Kent), 6:45 PM ET - KC at CLE (Michael Wacha vs Tanner Bibee), 7:10 PM ET - HOU at NYM (Hunter Brown vs Christian Scott), 7:10 PM ET - SD at TB (Casey Mize vs Shane McClanahan), 7:10 PM ET - SEA at TOR (Emerson Hancock vs Dylan Cease), 7:15 PM ET - COL at ATL (Tomoyuki Sugano vs Grant Holmes), 7:15 PM ET - BOS at NYY (Patrick Sandoval vs Cam Schlittler), 7:15 PM ET - TEX at MIL (Cody Bradford vs Logan Henderson), 7:40 PM ET - CWS at MIN (Luis Castillo vs Dean Kremer), 8:10 PM ET - PIT at STL (Jared Jones vs Quinn Mathews), 8:15 PM ET - PHI at LAA (Andrew Painter vs Reid Detmers), 9:38 PM ET - BAL at ATH (Brandon Young vs Jacob Lopez), 9:40 PM ET - AZ at SF (TBD vs Blade Tidwell), 10:15 PM ET ## Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves vs Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP) *Truist Park · 37 HR · 15.9% barrel · 103.9 mph EV · 0.526 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.19* **Top play tonight.** Tomoyuki Sugano throws his cutter 11% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.741 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Matt Olson should be sitting on. His 15.9% barrel rate (elite, top of the league) backs the take. An 91.6 mph fastball gives Olson something to drive. Olson to go deep is the play tonight. ## Coby Mayo, Baltimore Orioles vs Jacob Lopez (LHP) *Sutter Health Park · 17 HR · 12.7% barrel · 104.1 mph EV · 0.437 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.24* Tonight is a platoon spot the model loves: Coby Mayo (13 HR vs LHP, .723 SLG in that split) drawing Jacob Lopez. Underneath the matchup is a 12.7% barrel rate, which is above average territory. He is also trending the right way, 2 HR over his last 7 games. Jacob Lopez's 89.0 mph average fastball is the kind of velocity power bats wait for. The 93°F game time temp helps too; warm air carries. Mayo to go deep is the play tonight. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Christian Scott (RHP) *Citi Field · 36 HR · 17.1% barrel · 105.2 mph EV · 0.670 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.36* Yordan Alvarez is a lefty who eats right handers, .653 slugging in that split with 27 home runs. Christian Scott fits the script. Alvarez sits at 17.1%, the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry, and that profile carries the lean. He is hitting .409 over his last 7 games, the contact quality is there, the HR follows. Christian Scott keeps the ball off the ground (33% GB rate), which is the right profile for a HR play. I am backing Alvarez to clear the fences. ## Honorable Mentions - **Hunter Goodman** (COL) vs Grant Holmes: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Christian Encarnacion-Strand** (BAL) vs Jacob Lopez: 16.7% barrel rate. - **Andrés Chaparro** (WSH) vs Eury Pérez: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Esmerlyn Valdez** (PIT) vs Quinn Mathews: 21.2% barrel rate. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-28-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*