# MLB Dinger Picks Today (August 25, 2026): Best Home Run Bets

> MLB HR picks for August 25, 2026. Yordan Alvarez leads the board across 15 games. Statcast power metrics, matchup context, and hot streaks scored.

**Date:** 2026-08-25  
**Author:** HeatCheck HQ  
**Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props  
**Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-25-2026  
**Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io

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**Today's best MLB home run picks for Tuesday, August 25, 2026** are Yordan Alvarez (Score: 68, Yordan Alvarez rates a 67.7 dinger composite score against Will Warren today), Coby Mayo (Score: 65, Coby Mayo rates a 64.6 dinger composite score against Matthew Liberatore today), Eduardo Valencia (Score: 64, Eduardo Valencia rates a 64.1 dinger composite score against Ian Seymour today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily.

# MLB Dinger Picks Today: August 25, 2026

Every qualified bat scored across 14 factors. 333 candidates, 15 games, and here are the plays.

> [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers.

> **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for August 24](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-24-2026)

## Tonight's Slate

- TB at DET (Ian Seymour vs Jackson Jobe), 6:40 PM ET
- BOS at MIA (Payton Tolle vs TBD), 6:40 PM ET
- COL at WSH (Kyle Freeland vs Andrew Alvarez), 6:45 PM ET
- HOU at NYY (Ethan Pecko vs Will Warren), 7:05 PM ET
- KC at TOR (Seth Lugo vs Max Scherzer), 7:07 PM ET
- MIL at NYM (Kyle Harrison vs Zac Thornton), 7:10 PM ET
- LAD at ATL (Tyler Glasnow vs Bryce Elder), 7:15 PM ET
- TEX at CWS (Jacob deGrom vs Anthony Kay), 7:40 PM ET
- BAL at STL (Chris Bassitt vs Matthew Liberatore), 7:45 PM ET
- CLE at LAA (Gavin Williams vs Walbert Ureña), 9:38 PM ET
- CHC at AZ (Clay Holmes vs Brandon Pfaadt), 9:40 PM ET
- PIT at SD (Paul Skenes vs Michael King), 9:40 PM ET
- MIN at ATH (Taj Bradley vs Gage Jump), 9:40 PM ET
- PHI at SEA (Aaron Nola vs George Kirby), 9:40 PM ET
- CIN at SF (Brady Singer vs Landen Roupp), 9:45 PM ET

## Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Will Warren (RHP)

*Yankee Stadium · 36 HR · 17.3% barrel · 105.1 mph EV · 0.674 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.94*

**Top play tonight.** Yordan Alvarez's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Will Warren leans on a sweeper 19% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .645 against it.

Underneath the matchup is a 17.3% barrel rate, which is elite, top of the league territory. Alvarez is my HR lean in this spot.

## Coby Mayo, Baltimore Orioles vs Matthew Liberatore (LHP)

*Busch Stadium · 17 HR · 12.4% barrel · 104.0 mph EV · 0.431 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.36*

Lock in on the matchup math: 17% of Matthew Liberatore's pitches are his curveball, and hitters are punishing it (.453 SLG). Coby Mayo has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir.

Mayo sits at 12.4%, barrel rate that puts him comfortably in the top quartile, and that profile carries the lean. Mayo has been swinging at peak, 2 long balls in his last 7 games. Take Mayo to leave the yard tonight.

> **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats).

## Eduardo Valencia, Detroit Tigers vs Ian Seymour (LHP)

*Comerica Park · 6 HR · 21.3% barrel · 102.3 mph EV · 0.520 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.90*

Eduardo Valencia's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Ian Seymour leans on a sinker 14% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .683 against it.

Valencia squares the ball up at 21.3%, elite, top of the league contact quality on the year. An 90.9 mph fastball gives Valencia something to drive. Take Valencia to leave the yard tonight.

## Honorable Mentions

- **Rafael Flores Jr.** (PIT) vs Michael King: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
- **Christian Encarnacion-Strand** (BAL) vs Matthew Liberatore: 17.1% barrel rate.
- **Shohei Ohtani** (LAD) vs Bryce Elder: 3 HR in his last 7 games.
- **Munetaka Murakami** (CWS) vs Jacob deGrom: 20.2% barrel rate.
- **Miguel Vargas** (CWS) vs Jacob deGrom: 14.8% barrel rate.

## Related Guides

- [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters)
- [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide)
- [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained)

## Before You Lock

Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline.

Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr).

**More from HeatCheck HQ:**
- [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter
- [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-25-2026): no run first inning best bets
- [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks
- [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown

*Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).*

## Related Resources

- Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props)
- Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day)
- Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq)
- Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog)


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*Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*