# MLB Dinger Picks Today (August 24, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Data driven MLB home run picks for today's slate (10 games). A 14 factor Statcast model combines barrel rate, exit velocity, platoon matchups, pitcher vulnerabi **Date:** 2026-08-24 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-24-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Monday, August 24, 2026** are Andrés Chaparro (Score: 66, Andrés Chaparro rates a 65.5 dinger composite score against Ryan Feltner today), Abimelec Ortiz (Score: 65, Abimelec Ortiz rates a 64.5 dinger composite score against Ryan Feltner today), Esmerlyn Valdez (Score: 64, Esmerlyn Valdez rates a 64.2 dinger composite score against Robbie Ray today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: August 24, 2026 155 power bats scored across 10 games. These are tonight's top dinger targets. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for August 23](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-23-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - TB at DET (Drew Rasmussen vs Framber Valdez), 6:40 PM ET - BOS at MIA (Ranger Suarez vs TBD), 6:40 PM ET - COL at WSH (Ryan Feltner vs Cade Cavalli), 6:45 PM ET - TEX at CWS (TBD vs TBD), 7:40 PM ET - CLE at LAA (Parker Messick vs George Klassen), 9:38 PM ET - CHC at AZ (TBD vs TBD), 9:40 PM ET - PIT at SD (Braxton Ashcraft vs Robbie Ray), 9:40 PM ET - MIN at ATH (Zebby Matthews vs Jeffrey Springs), 9:40 PM ET - PHI at SEA (Zack Wheeler vs TBD), 9:40 PM ET - CIN at SF (Chase Burns vs Carson Whisenhunt), 9:45 PM ET ## Andrés Chaparro, Washington Nationals vs Ryan Feltner (RHP) *Nationals Park · 8 HR · 14.4% barrel · 101.7 mph EV · 0.494 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.59* **Top play tonight.** Ryan Feltner throws his slider 24% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.625 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Andrés Chaparro should be sitting on. At 14.4%, Chaparro carries barrel rate that screams "elite contact quality", top decile across MLB. 2 HR in his last 7 games means the bat is on time, not just on paper. Chaparro to go deep is the play tonight. ## Abimelec Ortiz, Washington Nationals vs Ryan Feltner (RHP) *Nationals Park · 5 HR · 14.0% barrel · 101.1 mph EV · 0.545 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.59* Lock in on the matchup math: 24% of Ryan Feltner's pitches are his slider, and hitters are punishing it (.625 SLG). Abimelec Ortiz has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. The barrel rate (14.0%) is in the elite, top of the league tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. Take Ortiz to leave the yard tonight. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Esmerlyn Valdez, Pittsburgh Pirates vs Robbie Ray (LHP) *Petco Park · 14 HR · 21.1% barrel · 102.9 mph EV · 0.449 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.43* Lock in on the matchup math: 33% of Robbie Ray's pitches are his 4-seam fastball, and hitters are punishing it (.466 SLG). Esmerlyn Valdez has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. At 21.1%, Valdez carries barrel rate that screams "elite contact quality", top decile across MLB. Valdez is my HR lean in this spot. ## Honorable Mentions - **Eduardo Valencia** (DET) vs Drew Rasmussen: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Oneil Cruz** (PIT) vs Robbie Ray: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Rafael Flores Jr.** (PIT) vs Robbie Ray: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Kody Clemens** (MIN) vs Jeffrey Springs: Jeffrey Springs giving up 2.08 HR/9. - **Byron Buxton** (MIN) vs Jeffrey Springs: 16.3% barrel rate. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-24-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*