# MLB Dinger Picks Today (August 23, 2026): Best Home Run Bets

> Dinger of the Day for August 23, 2026. A slate of 15 games scored across 14 Statcast and matchup factors, with Yordan Alvarez leading tonight's HR picks.

**Date:** 2026-08-23  
**Author:** HeatCheck HQ  
**Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props  
**Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-23-2026  
**Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io

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**Today's best MLB home run picks for Sunday, August 23, 2026** are Yordan Alvarez (Score: 66, Yordan Alvarez rates a 66.0 dinger composite score against Jack Perkins today), Rafael Flores Jr. (Score: 62, Rafael Flores Jr. rates a 62.4 dinger composite score against Blake Snell today), Eduardo Valencia (Score: 62, Eduardo Valencia rates a 62.0 dinger composite score against Daniel Lynch IV today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily.

# MLB Dinger Picks Today: August 23, 2026

A slate of 15 games and 336 eligible bats. These Statcast profiles and matchups stand out.

> [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers.

> **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for August 22](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-22-2026)

## Tonight's Slate

- TB at BAL (Nick Martinez vs Shane Baz), 1:35 PM ET
- STL at PHI (Kyle Leahy vs Cristopher Sánchez), 1:35 PM ET
- TOR at NYY (José Soriano vs Carlos Rodón), 1:35 PM ET
- WSH at MIA (Jackson Kent vs Janson Junk), 1:40 PM ET
- DET at KC (Framber Valdez vs Daniel Lynch IV), 2:10 PM ET
- ATH at HOU (Jack Perkins vs Cristian Javier), 2:10 PM ET
- NYM at CWS (Nolan McLean vs TBD), 2:10 PM ET
- LAA at TEX (George Klassen vs Cal Quantrill), 2:35 PM ET
- CLE at COL (Foster Griffin vs Tomoyuki Sugano), 3:10 PM ET
- SF at BOS (Carson Whisenhunt vs Jake Bennett), 3:15 PM ET
- PIT at LAD (Carmen Mlodzinski vs Blake Snell), 4:10 PM ET
- CHC at SEA (Shota Imanaga vs Bryce Miller), 4:10 PM ET
- MIN at SD (Bailey Ober vs Walker Buehler), 4:10 PM ET
- CIN at AZ (Andrew Abbott vs Mitch Bratt), 4:15 PM ET
- ATL at MIL (Tyler Mahle vs Shane Drohan), 7:10 PM ET

## Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Jack Perkins (RHP)

*Daikin Park · 36 HR · 17.4% barrel · 105.1 mph EV · 0.673 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.39*

**Top play tonight.** Jack Perkins throws his 4-seam fastball 33% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.627 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Yordan Alvarez should be sitting on.

His 17.4% barrel rate (elite, top of the league) backs the take. Alvarez to go deep is the play tonight.

## Rafael Flores Jr., Pittsburgh Pirates vs Blake Snell (LHP)

*UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · 6 HR · 21.2% barrel · 102.3 mph EV · 0.604 xSLG*

Blake Snell throws his changeup 18% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.556 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Rafael Flores Jr. should be sitting on.

His 21.2% barrel rate (elite, top of the league) backs the take. Hot streak is real: 3 HR over the last 7 games is double his typical pace. Jr. is my HR lean in this spot.

> **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats).

## Eduardo Valencia, Detroit Tigers vs Daniel Lynch IV (LHP)

*Kauffman Stadium · 6 HR · 23.8% barrel · 102.5 mph EV · 0.547 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.39*

Daniel Lynch IV throws his 4-seam fastball 17% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.800 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Eduardo Valencia should be sitting on.

Valencia sits at 23.8%, the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry, and that profile carries the lean. The bat has been a different gear lately, 2 HR in his last 7 games is well ahead of his season pace. I am backing Valencia to clear the fences.

## Honorable Mentions

- **Munetaka Murakami** (CWS) vs Nolan McLean: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
- **Kyle Schwarber** (PHI) vs Kyle Leahy: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
- **Oneil Cruz** (PIT) vs Blake Snell: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
- **Abimelec Ortiz** (WSH) vs Janson Junk: 16.2% barrel rate.
- **Pete Alonso** (BAL) vs Nick Martinez: 4 HR in his last 7 games.

## Related Guides

- [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters)
- [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide)
- [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained)

## Before You Lock

Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline.

Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr).

**More from HeatCheck HQ:**
- [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter
- [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-23-2026): no run first inning best bets
- [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks
- [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown

*Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).*

## Related Resources

- Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props)
- Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day)
- Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq)
- Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog)


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