# MLB Dinger Picks Today (August 22, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Who hits a home run tonight? 15 games analyzed through barrel rate, xSLG, platoon splits, and pitcher HR/9, with Eduardo Valencia on top of the dinger board. **Date:** 2026-08-22 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-22-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Saturday, August 22, 2026** are Eduardo Valencia (Score: 66, Eduardo Valencia rates a 66.4 dinger composite score against Michael Wacha today), Rafael Flores Jr. (Score: 64, Rafael Flores Jr. rates a 64.4 dinger composite score against Tarik Skubal today), Christian Encarnacion-Strand (Score: 64, Christian Encarnacion-Strand rates a 64.0 dinger composite score against Shane McClanahan today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: August 22, 2026 Best HR plays from tonight's 15 games. 319 batters evaluated on barrel rate, pitcher matchup, and recent form. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for August 21](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-21-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - TOR at NYY (Dylan Cease vs Ryan Weathers), 1:35 PM ET - ATL at MIL (Martín Pérez vs Logan Henderson), 2:10 PM ET - WSH at MIA (Jake Irvin vs Eury Pérez), 4:10 PM ET - STL at PHI (Andre Pallante vs Andrew Painter), 6:05 PM ET - TB at BAL (Shane McClanahan vs Brandon Young), 7:05 PM ET - LAA at TEX (Ryan Johnson vs Cody Bradford), 7:05 PM ET - ATH at HOU (Jacob Lopez vs Hunter Brown), 7:10 PM ET - NYM at CWS (TBD vs Luis Castillo), 7:10 PM ET - DET at KC (Drew Anderson vs Michael Wacha), 7:15 PM ET - PIT at LAD (Jared Jones vs Tarik Skubal), 7:15 PM ET - CHC at SEA (David Peterson vs Kade Anderson), 7:15 PM ET - SF at BOS (Blade Tidwell vs Patrick Sandoval), 7:15 PM ET - CIN at AZ (Rhett Lowder vs Michael Soroka), 8:10 PM ET - CLE at COL (Tanner Bibee vs Gabriel Hughes), 8:10 PM ET - MIN at SD (Dean Kremer vs Casey Mize), 8:40 PM ET ## Eduardo Valencia, Detroit Tigers vs Michael Wacha (RHP) *Kauffman Stadium · 6 HR · 23.8% barrel · 102.5 mph EV · 0.547 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.53* **Top play tonight.** Eduardo Valencia's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Michael Wacha leans on a cutter 15% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .598 against it. His 23.8% barrel rate (elite, top of the league) backs the take. Hot streak is real: 2 HR over the last 7 games is double his typical pace. An 92.1 mph fastball gives Valencia something to drive. Valencia is my HR lean in this spot. ## Rafael Flores Jr., Pittsburgh Pirates vs Tarik Skubal (LHP) *UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · 6 HR · 21.2% barrel · 102.3 mph EV · 0.603 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.00* Rafael Flores Jr. has gone deep 5 times in his last 7 games while hitting .435. The bat is in the kind of rhythm where you ride it until it breaks. Jr. sits at 21.2%, the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry, and that profile carries the lean. I am backing Jr. to clear the fences. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Baltimore Orioles vs Shane McClanahan (LHP) *Oriole Park at Camden Yards · 6 HR · 18.8% barrel · 102.5 mph EV · 0.566 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.71* Tonight is a platoon spot the model loves: Christian Encarnacion-Strand (4 HR vs LHP, .719 SLG in that split) drawing Shane McClanahan. At 18.8%, Encarnacion-Strand carries barrel rate that screams "elite contact quality", top decile across MLB. Encarnacion-Strand is on a serious heater right now, 2 HR in 7 games is well past his baseline. One reason to size down: Shane McClanahan has been stingy with the long ball this year (0.71 HR/9), so the matchup is tougher than the bat profile alone reads. Encarnacion-Strand is my HR lean in this spot. ## Honorable Mentions - **Griffin Conine** (MIA) vs Jake Irvin: 16.8% barrel rate. - **Yordan Alvarez** (HOU) vs Jacob Lopez: 17.5% barrel rate. - **Matt Olson** (ATL) vs Logan Henderson: 15.8% barrel rate. - **Shohei Ohtani** (LAD) vs Jared Jones: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Coby Mayo** (BAL) vs Shane McClanahan: 2 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-22-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*