# MLB Dinger Picks Today (August 20, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Data driven MLB home run picks for today's slate (9 games). A 14 factor Statcast model combines barrel rate, exit velocity, platoon matchups, pitcher vulnerabil **Date:** 2026-08-20 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-20-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Thursday, August 20, 2026** are Yordan Alvarez (Score: 74, Yordan Alvarez rates a 73.5 dinger composite score against Grayson Rodriguez today), Munetaka Murakami (Score: 70, Munetaka Murakami rates a 70.3 dinger composite score against Grant Holmes today), Alec Burleson (Score: 63, Alec Burleson rates a 62.7 dinger composite score against Brady Singer today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: August 20, 2026 9 games on the board. These bats have the Statcast profiles and matchups to go deep. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for August 19](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-19-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - STL at CIN (Michael McGreevy vs Brady Singer), 12:40 PM ET - SF at CLE (Landen Roupp vs Gavin Williams), 1:10 PM ET - TOR at TB (Shane Bieber vs Ian Seymour), 1:10 PM ET - ATH at KC (J.T. Ginn vs Randy Dobnak), 2:10 PM ET - ATL at CWS (Grant Holmes vs TBD), 2:10 PM ET - SEA at MIL (George Kirby vs Robert Gasser), 2:10 PM ET - NYY at BAL (Gerrit Cole vs Kyle Bradish), 6:35 PM ET - WSH at TEX (Andrew Alvarez vs Jacob deGrom), 8:05 PM ET - LAA at HOU (Grayson Rodriguez vs Peter Lambert), 8:10 PM ET ## Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Grayson Rodriguez (RHP) *Daikin Park · 36 HR · 17.7% barrel · 105.2 mph EV · 0.681 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.46* **Top play tonight.** Lock in on the matchup math: 12% of Grayson Rodriguez's pitches are his slider, and hitters are punishing it (.677 SLG). Yordan Alvarez has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. Alvarez squares the ball up at 17.7%, elite, top of the league contact quality on the year. I am backing Alvarez to clear the fences. ## Munetaka Murakami, Chicago White Sox vs Grant Holmes (RHP) *Rate Field · 28 HR · 21.2% barrel · 104.8 mph EV · 0.512 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.62* Munetaka Murakami's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Grant Holmes leans on a sinker 12% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .476 against it. His 21.2% barrel rate (elite, top of the league) backs the take. The recent stretch tells you the timing is right: 3 HR in 7 games. Murakami to go deep is the play tonight. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Alec Burleson, St. Louis Cardinals vs Brady Singer (RHP) *Great American Ball Park · 21 HR · 11.5% barrel · 102.3 mph EV · 0.546 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.52* Lock in on the matchup math: 16% of Brady Singer's pitches are his sweeper, and hitters are punishing it (.482 SLG). Alec Burleson has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. His 11.5% barrel rate (above average) backs the take. Burleson has been swinging at peak, 2 long balls in his last 7 games. An 90.8 mph fastball gives Burleson something to drive. Burleson is my HR lean in this spot. ## Honorable Mentions - **Miguel Vargas** (CWS) vs Grant Holmes: 4 HR in his last 7 games. - **Pete Alonso** (BAL) vs Gerrit Cole: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Tyler Stephenson** (CIN) vs Michael McGreevy: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Jordan Walker** (STL) vs Brady Singer: 13.1% barrel rate. - **Junior Caminero** (TB) vs Shane Bieber: 13.4% barrel rate. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-20-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*